AMERICAS FRIDAYS

GEOPOLITICAL RISK+GLOBAL MARKETS

US-AMERICAS | GEOPOLITICAL RISK

The ideas of liberalism’s greatest thinkers liberals re in the market for new ideas. For roughly 30 years, they ran the world. Starting in the early 1980s, free markets, globalisation and individual freedoms flourished. Liberalism—in this broad classical sense, rather than the narrow American left-of-centre one—saw off communism as well as social conservatism. Then, in the crash of 2008, it all fell apart. -The Economist

 

CONGRESS TO RECLAIM TRADE? to amend section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to require the Secretary of Defense to initiate investigations and to provide for congressional disapproval of certain actions, and for other purposes. -Portman.senate.gov

Trump Advisers Urge Raising Additional China Tariffs to 25% Washington hasn’t made meaningful headway in easing its market-rattling trade dispute with Beijing -WSJ (subscription)

Deterring Russia: Proposed Sanctions Legislation and Implications for Energy -Atlantic Council (Webcast)

U.S. eases export controls for high-tech sales to India -Reuters

Trump Privacy Pitch May Get Public Scrutiny on Road to Congress Despite the changed climate, it’s unclear at best whether a deeply divided Congress can enact a new privacy bill, even with tech sector backing. Privacy advocates have staunch Democratic allies in both the House and Senate. A shift in party control of either chamber in the November midterm elections will cloud the prospects for a bill. -Bloomberg Law

Deal with U.S. on key NAFTA rule closer, Mexico and Canada say The United States and Mexico are nearing a deal on the key issue of autos content rules at talks to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexican and Canadian officials said on Wednesday. -Reuters

Nafta Snub Tests Trudeau’s Armor Against Trump’s Aggression -Bloomberg

Brazil’s Populist Temptation After a series of disastrous governments, October’s general election will give Brazilians a chance to chart a new course for their country. But with populist politicians leading in the polls, the country may instead be headed for a period of prolonged social, political, and economic turmoil. -Project Syndicate

US-AMERICAS | MARKETS IMPACT+OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

TODAY, FOREIGN POLICY IS DOMESTIC POLICY Ahead of Asia Trip, Business Lobby Gives Pompeo an Earful on Trade War -NYT

 “If our companies lose access to foreign markets, they will struggle to remain competitive in the global economy,” Mr. Donohue said in a clear reference to President Trump’s trade war and tariffs. “Today, foreign policy is domestic policy.”

The Political Education of Silicon Valley How the anti-government tech-libertarianism of John Perry Barlow gave way to enthusiasm for wealth redistribution and a Berniecrat named Ro Khanna. -Wired

Faced With Crippling Sanctions, ZTE Loaded Up on Lobbyists -NYT

Alas, Mr. President, what goes around comes around. Marc Bitzer, the chief executive officer of Whirlpool, touted this protection as “without any doubt, a positive catalyst for Whirlpool.” Of course, it’s not so good for American consumers who must now pay a penalty if they insist on buying the foreign-made washers that they prefer over American-made washers. From Whirlpool’s standpoint, the policy seemed like a raging success. Imports of large residential washers fell from a monthly average of 350,000 in 2017 to an average of 161,000 each month of 2018 through April. -The American Spector

GM seeks to exclude China-made Buick SUV from tariff -Reuters

THE SUNSHINE STATE Crackdown on dirty money shook Miami real estate. Now, Rubio wants to take it national Through an amendment to an unrelated major spending bill, Rubio will ask Treasury to study whether government regulators should force shell companies that buy homes priced at $300,000 or more in cash nationwide to disclose their owners. That could be a figure as high as 10 percent of the nation’s real-estate deals. -Miami Herald 

TransCanada sees robust oil shipper interest in Keystone XL -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

Treasury Plans to Boost Borrowing as Trillion-Dollar Deficits Loom Move could boost the cost of credit, rippling through the economy -WSJ

PODCAST OF THE WEEK In this episode, the Trade Guys welcome another special guest. Ed Brzytwa is the director of international trade at the American Chemistry Council and a former United States Trade Representative negotiator. He joins the Trade Guys in the studio to talk about how the trade war is affecting both producers and consumers of chemical products, which include everything from plastics, to cosmetics, to liquified natural gas -CSIS

WTO issues 2018 editions of its flagship statistical publications -WTO

The Big Tariff Board, 2018 A comprehensive, searchable, HTS-aligned listing of the 8,191+ product lines subject to additional tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners. -Geoquant