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GEOPOLITICAL RISK+GLOBAL MARKETS

US-AMERICAS | GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Paeans to the ‘Postwar Order’ Won’t Save Us Confronted with a choice between “America First” and “the postwar international order,” voters will opt for what they understand and identify with, what evokes a better future. Does anyone really think “the order” will win? -War on the Rocks

U.S. Officials Scrambled Behind the Scenes to Shield NATO Deal From Trump Senior American national security officials, seeking to prevent President Trump from upending a formal policy agreement at last month’s NATO meeting, pushed the military alliance’s ambassadors to complete it before the forum even began. -NYT

Pence says Pentagon should create 'space force' to 'defeat a new generation of threats' -LA Times

From Rule Maker to Rule Taker Critics of Donald Trump’s trade policies are understandably focused on the damage to short-term U.S. economic interests and to the broader global economic order. These costs are real and measurable. But the most lasting impact of President Trump’s approach could be to concede to others the role the United States has played since World War II as the leading rule maker in the global economy. Early signs of this shift are appearing around the world, from Brussels to Hanoi to Beijing. -CSIS

Steven Mnuchin Is Still Standing Trump’s Treasury secretary has pushed tax cuts and sanctions and has learned to keep his head down in the trade war. -Bloomberg

This Is the Way Paul Ryan’s Speakership Ends The Republican leader is walking away. Don’t ask him about Trump anymore. -NYT

Update: Congress Enacts the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) cleared Congress on August 1, and now awaits President Trump’s signature. Following action on July 26 by the House of Representatives, on August 1 the Senate approved the Conference Committee Report on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2019, which incorporates the version of FIRRMA to which the Senate and House conferees agreed. -Lexology

Canada Sees Return to Nafta Talks as U.S.-Mexico Near Auto Deal -Bloomberg

Canada could soon be returning to the Nafta talks as the U.S. and Mexico approach agreement on a deal over cars, according to one of Canada’s top diplomats.

The U.S. and Mexico, which have been in bilateral negotiations for about three weeks, appear to be “getting close” to agreement over auto manufacturing, David MacNaughton, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., said in an interview.

Iván Duque takes charge in Colombia The new president will be buffeted from all sides -The Economist

Venezuelan migrants throng Ecuador-Colombia border high up in Andes thousands of Venezuelans overwhelmed the Ecuadorean-Colombian border high in the Andean mountains on Thursday, as fears of border closings led to a sudden surge in migrants from the ravaged OPEC-member country. -Reuters

US-AMERICAS | MARKETS IMPACT+OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Uber and the False Hopes of the Sharing Economy The passage of extensive legislation by New York’s City Council on Wednesday, curtailing the previously unchecked powers of Uber and other ride-hailing services, suggests the extent to which the false promises of the sharing economy are becoming better understood and, how much more aggressively they still could be counteracted. -NYT

Social Media and Censorship The idea that the big internet platforms are not media companies has never really been tenable, and the contradictions in their public protestations of neutrality have become ever more apparent over time. -The American Interest

Is Apple Really Your Privacy Hero? The world’s most valuable company is seen as a champion for your data. It should be doing more. -Bloomberg

Uber lost in NYC. But here’s the real problem. What city will try heavy-handed regulation next? -Recode

Trump administration to seize stake in Chinese-owned building -NY Post

The Trump Administration’s Dead End on Trade The Trump administration has initiated a trade dispute with China with the stated goal of reducing America's bilateral deficit. But given the strengthening dollar and expansionary US fiscal policies, the US trade balance will almost certainly worsen for the foreseeable future. -Project Syndicate

U.S. carmakers hit with Chinese tariffs as trade war changes gear The updated tariff list, published by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday, will slap 25 percent duties on 333 products instead of the initial 114 identified in mid-June, keeping the total value of the goods unchanged. -SCMP

U.S. companies with exposure to Russia Publicly listed U.S. companies generated more than $90 billion in revenue from Russia in 2017, according to the Thomson Reuters Country of Risk model, which estimates companies’ financial exposure to different countries. Among the industries with the greatest exposure to Russia are food and beverages, technology and pharmaceuticals. -Reuters

U.S. Starts Picking Power-Plant Winners for Emergency Aid -Bloomberg

GLOBAL MACRO

The Ahistorical Federal Reserve The most effective – and thus the most credible – monetary policy is one that reflects not only the lessons of history, but also a willingness to reconsider long-held assumptions. Unfortunately, neither attribute is much in evidence at today's Federal Reserve. -Project Syndicate

These Massive Renewable Energy Projects Are Powering Chilean Mines A surge in solar, geothermal, and wind development is helping to wean the industry off imported fossil fuels. -Bloomberg