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GEOPOLITICAL RISK+GLOBAL MARKETS

EMEA | GEOPOLITICAL RISK

How a 5Star-League government would scare Brussels Populists who have voiced Euroskeptic views could take the reins of one of the EU’s founding members. For the first time since the EU was formed, one of the bloc’s founding members could soon be governed by leaders who have been openly skeptical of the European project. And that’s just the start of it -Politico.eu

Germany’s Great European Heist Two seemingly reasonable principles guide German thinking about eurozone integration: responsibilities and control must be aligned; and legacy risks must be settled before any pooling of risks among euro members takes place. But what if France applied Germany’s approach to eurozone integration to the question of mutualizing defense commitments? -Project Syndicate

UK and EU test limits of security partnership after Brexit With transatlantic relations strained by Trump, the interests of those on both sides of the Channel appear increasingly closely aligned. -Politico.eu

How Europe Should Respond to Trump’s Steel Tariffs Whereas the US has apparently abandoned economic logic in its search for quick “wins" on trade, the EU continues to prioritize economic logic above geopolitical considerations. Fortunately, when it comes to steel, there is a way to give Trump his victory that aligns with the EU's economic interests. -Politico.eu

‘Who Lost Russia?’ Isn’t Just an Academic Debate The answer could help the U.S. avoid alienating other countries -Bloomberg

Trump’s Iran decision gives gift to Putin Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear accord has brought a bonus for the Kremlin. The U.S. president’s Iran action means that Vladimir Putin could make up with the soaring price of oil – the real backbone of the Russian economy and his hold on power – for what he lost from the sanctions. -Reuters

EU 'seeking quick solution to save Iran nuclear deal' -France24

Nakba day: Israel faces international condemnation over two-day ‘massacre’ at Gaza border Turkey and South Africa recall their ambassadors to Israel after worst violence against Palestinians in years -The Independent

EMEA | MARKETS IMPACT+OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

GDPR has MPs in a bind Across the UK, small businesses are in something of a panic over GDPR. And among those worried about whether they will be ready for the new data protection laws are 650 firms based in Westminster. -BBC

EU paid Airbus billions in illegal subsidies, WTO rules The World Trade Organization (WTO) has ruled that the European Union (EU) failed to comply with requests to end subsidies for Airbus. -BBC

360⁰ OF RISK Facilitators of US sanctions face jail in Russia Go along with US sanctions, and you'll face jail — that's the warning Russian lawmakers have for those who adhere to or facilitate business sanctions. Foreign companies have much to lose in this catch-22 situation. -DW

How Rusal escaped the noose of U.S. sanctions -Reuters

Embattled Kaspersky to open Swiss data centre 'for transparency' Cyber-security firm Kaspersky Lab has said it will relocate some of its operations from Moscow to Switzerland, after the US government and others accused it of spying on customers at the Russian state's demand. -BBC

Air France-KLM: a triumvirate to run strike-hit company after boss resigns -France24

U.S. Sanctions Iran Central Bank Governor for Alleged Terrorist Support The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions Tuesday on Iran’s central bank governor and another senior official in the bank for allegedly providing support for terrorist activities. -Bloomberg

Sibanye's Lonmin takeover faces British antitrust scrutiny Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority said it will examine whether a takeover of Lonmin by South Africa’s Sibanye-Stillwater would reduce competition, knocking shares in both mining firms. -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

Italy Bonds Roiled as Populists Debate $300 Billion Write-Down The ECB is barred from directly financing governments under the Maastricht Treaty. An ECB spokesman declined to comment on the leaked draft. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes climbed above 2 percent for the first time since March on the news -Bloomberg

$50 Billion Says Bonds Don't Care About Brexit A flood of orders for ultra-long government debt shows Britain has no trouble raising money. -Bloomberg

Oil prices jump 3 percent after US leaves Iran nuclear deal -France24

Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline should not be built Poland’s deputy foreign minister warns that the project will harm the EU and end up helping only Russia. -Politico.eu

Thomson Reuters shifts foreign exchange arm ahead of Brexit -BBC