AMERICAS FRIDAYS

GEOPOLITICAL RISK+GLOBAL MARKETS

US-AMERICAS | RISK REALIZED = IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

CHINA v. AMERICA The end of engagement How the world’s two superpowers have become rivals -The Economist

Astute business/market followers of @oxbowadvisory - have been aware and prepared for this inevitability for some time. 

US INC. RE-WATCH Pence Speech -HudsonInstitute

DealBook Briefing: C.E.O.s Are America’s New Diplomats -NYT

U.S. companies file thousands of China tariff exclusion requests Many of the companies' requests warn of job cuts or other harm if they are not granted relief from the 25 percent import tax imposed by President Donald Trump. For instance, Manncorp, an electronics manufacturer supplier, said its business margins could disappear entirely if it has to absorb those costs. -Politico

“Exemption from the burden these tariffs would impose would allow us to avoid a payroll decrease and possible slide into insolvency as our associated costs increase."

Sticker shock: Trump’s new trade deal could bring higher car prices -Politico

CHART OF THE WEEK How Corporate America’s lobbying on tariffs has surged. Chart here: -Marketwatch

Your Clothes Could Be Made in the USA Again Apparel from Asia takes too long to reach Western markets and automation is making manufacturing at home cost-effective. -Bloomberg 

Who’s Winning the Social Media Midterms? -NYT

Facebook sets up "war room" to take down fake news Facebook launched a unit called ''war room'' to combat disinformation and fake accounts ahead of midterms. -Reuters (video)

Nuclear Export Restrictions to China a Welcome Policy Change, Observers Say U.S micro-reactor, SMR makers say new limits unlikely to affect business, but some hope for more export changes -Morning Consult

United States: Sanctions Round Up: Third Quarter 2018 US sanctions against Russia remained front and center this quarter, with the Trump Administration imposing new measures in response to Russia's alleged involvement in biological attacks in the UK, issuing a new executive order aimed at preventing further election meddling, and even taking aim at Russia's weapons sales to China. Still, some US lawmakers are pushing for additional, "crushing" new sanctions against Russia as they argue that the Administration's approach to date is insufficient. -Mondaq

Banks urge U.S. regulators to reconsider 'Volcker Rule' tweaks The public comment period ended on Wednesday with several prominent industry groups, including the Financial Services Forum and the Bank Policy Institute, urging the five agencies involved to seriously reconsider or scrap major portions of the proposal. -Reuters

Petrobras Agrees to Pay More Than $1.8 Billion for Facilitating FCPA Violations U.S. enforcement authorities continue to benefit from Brazil's corruption cleanup. Four years ago, Brazilian authorities began Operation Car Wash, a wide-ranging and still ongoing corruption and money laundering investigation that has spanned 11 countries, resulted in charges against hundreds of individuals. -Lexology 

GLOBAL MACRO

The Dollar and its Discontents Having unilaterally reimposed sanctions on Iran, US President Donald Trump's administration is threatening to penalize companies doing business with the Islamic Republic by denying them access to US banks. But that could hasten the dollar's demise as the main global currency. -Project Syndicate

Treasury sends warning shot to China on currency Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a warning about the lack of transparency and the relative weakness of China’s currency, the renminbi. -Politico

“Those pose major challenges to achieving fairer and more balanced trade, and we will continue to monitor and review China’s currency practices, including through ongoing discussions with the People’s Bank of China”

READ THE REPORT Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States -U.S. Treasury

Mnuchin Quits Saudi Investor Event With Furor Mounting Over Khashoggi -Bloomberg

The Big Blockchain Lie Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from last year's absurdly high valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of so-called distributed-ledger technologies should be next. The promise to cure the world's ills through "decentralization" was just a ruse to separate retail investors from their hard-earned real money. -Project Syndicate