GEOPOLITICAL RISK TRACKER >> APAC MONDAYS

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

THE GREEK GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING >> 'Thucydides Trap' -The Diplomat

“If leaders just keep doing what they have been doing… the odds that they stumble to war seem to me greater than even.” -Graham Allison

ALSO WATCH >> Graham Allison introduces his new book on China, “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?” -Charlie Rose (video)

CHINA RISK

DIALOGUE >> China says dialogue vital to tackle Korean peninsula crisis -Reuters

China Tells India That It Won’t Back Down in Border Dispute China’s military has warned India not to underestimate its resolve to hold a mountainous piece of land at the heart of a standoff between the two Asian powers. -NYT

“India must dispel any illusions that it can hold out for a change,” Col. Ren Guoqiang, a spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry

China Opens First Overseas Military Base Only a few miles down the road from the U.S. base at Camp Lemmonier, China has just announced the opening of its first overseas military base in the tiny nation of Djibouti on the Bab al-Mandeb straits at the southern end of the Red Sea. -The American Interest  

China to Punish Communist Party Members Who Visit 'Illegal Websites' -Bloomberg

AN AP STYLE GUIDE WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS>> Here are all the words Chinese state media has banned -SupChina

JAPAN RISK

NOT DIALOGUE >> Japan says time for 'effective pressure' on North Korea, not dialogue A Japanese foreign ministry spokesman on Sunday welcomed tougher U.N. sanctions on North Korea over its missile tests and said it was time to exert more "effective pressure" on Pyongyang rather than to pursue dialogue. -ChannelNewsAsia

Japan's new foreign minister tackles North Korea issue on int'l debut -Nikkei

Japan to start work on revising basic energy policy One of the main issues to be addressed will be the Japanese government plan to rely on nuclear power to generate 20 to 22 percent of the country's electricity by 2030 -Reuters

An investor's view of Japan's political turmoil Ruling party continuity should help dampen any market backlash Shinzo Abe, the third longest serving prime minister of post-war Japan, is in a perilous position. -Nikkei 

MONGOLIA RISK

Beyond “Populism without Party Platforms”: Mongolians’ Politics Beyond Ulaanbaatar The Democratic Party’s choice of Battulga as candidate, and votes for against him and the party, may also be seen in a context of questions about Mongolia’s path in an international context after socialism. -Mongolia Focus

KOREAS RISK

Seoul, Washington agree on early revision of missile guidelines The top diplomats of South Korea and the United States agreed to start early negotiations on revising a bilateral missile guidelines agreement to better cope with North Korea's missile threats, an official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Sunday. -The Korea Times

Time to End Wishful Thinking on China's North Korea Policy Donald Trump has gotten the message: the Chinese are not going to help. What does the U.S. do now? -The Diplomat

Consider The THAAD: How An Armed Japan Could Help Tame North Korea -Forbes

Regime Change in North Korea: Be Careful What You Wish For Is the Trump administration seriously contemplating changing the regime in North Korea? Frankly, the signals are mixed. -38 North

UN resolution would slash North Korea exports by a third -Nikkei

TAIWAN RISK

Taiwan is telling China to quit playing politics after more nationals were deported to China The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) lodged a stern protest with Beijing on Thursday after Indonesian authorities deported 22 Taiwanese nationals along with 121 mainland Chinese scammers to China. -The China Post

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

PODCAST OF THE WEEK >> Assessing ASEAN's Geopolitical Relevance After 50 Years As ASEAN nears its 50th anniversary, what challenges does it face as a regional organization? -The Diplomat (audio)

50 years on, the South China Sea stands between Asean and ‘one community’ Cary Huang says many Asean members are caught between ‘China opportunities’ and the ‘China threat’, as they walk a tightrope between security ally US and an assertive Beijing, with disputes in the South China Sea threatening regional stability -SCMP

How much trade transits the South China Sea? UNCTAD estimates that roughly 80 percent of global trade by volume and 70 percent by value is transported by sea. Of that volume, 60 percent of maritime trade passes through Asia, with the South China Sea carrying an estimated one-third of global shipping. -ChinaPower (CSIS)

Indonesia seeks bilateral agreement with US Indonesian exports to the US reached US$9.13 billion last year. The main manufactured products exported to the country were palm oil products, furniture, pulp and paper, handicrafts, electronics and aluminum products. -The Jakarta Post

China's infrastructure diplomacy in Indonesia -The Jakarta Post

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Exclusive: China regulators plan to crack down further on overseas deals China plans to further tighten the screws on overseas acquisitions by Chinese companies and borrowing to fund those transactions, and has started closely scrutinizing the commercial aspects of the deals, three people familiar with the move said. -Reuters

China and the US are battling to become the world’s first AI superpower -The Verge

How can China become a tech leader if it’s intolerant of free thought? Liu Xiaobo’s case makes innovators wonder where’s the line between ‘subversive’ inventiveness and politically correct thought that keeps you out of the gulag -The Straits Times

Is Apple Kowtowing to China? Apple removes VPN apps from China stores and opens its first data center in China As China systematically tightens its grip on the free flow of information — the internet in particular — the American tech giant Apple seems to have bent its knees, too. -The Diplomat

Hong Kong traders feel pinch as Apple's China charm fades -Reuters

Cosco Shipping International's Q2 loss of $20.8 million an improvement from year ago -The Straits Times

Japan Inc. raising profit outlooks thanks to overseas business Manufacturers lead strongest upgrade trend since 2013 -Nikkei

Why Japan is Already Becoming the World’s FinTech Leader -Disrupting Japan (podcast)

China renews THAAD retaliation Beijing has stepped up economic retaliation against Korean businesses despite Seoul's efforts to ease tensions over the deployment of a U.S. missile shield here, industry sources said Friday. -The Korea Times

EVA strike affects 10,000 passengers -Taipei Times

Indonesia, Google to use Trusted Flagger program to filter out internet content -The Jakarta Post

Philippine PXP Energy eager to resume South China Sea drilling Philippine oil and gas firm PXP Energy Corp (PXP.PS) expressed eagerness on Thursday to resume exploration in the disputed South China Sea and said any joint venture development would likely involve a Chinese company. -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

EMERGING MARKETS >> Emerging stocks set for 7th month of gains, shrugs off politics -Reuters

China's debt troubles are rapidly going global Beijing's debt binge is a clear danger to the global economy -Nikkei

A Look at Consumer Confidence in South Korea in July 2017 -Market Realist

South Korea Exports Surge: ETFs in Focus South Korean exports increased for the ninth straight month in July. It expanded nearly 20% year over year owing to increased global demand and improving global economic sentiment. -Zacks.com