Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays




Low world inflation dogs central bankers, even as economies grow The world's top central bankers gather in Jackson Hole, their confidence bolstered by a sustained return to economic growth that may eventually allow the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to follow the Federal Reserve in winding down their crisis-era policies.

STRAIGHTEN THIS PHILLIP GUY’S CURVE OUT>> Yet in one key area, none of the world's central banks has found the answer. Inflation remains well below their two percent targets, stoking a debate about whether they are missing signals of a less than healthy economy and the need for a slower path of "rate normalization", or that they simply don't understand how inflation works in a globalized world. -Reuters  

Who Wants to Deregulate Finance? -Project Syndicate


Trump Widens Rift With Congress as Critical Showdowns Loom -NYT

Can Trump Deal with North Korea and China? Today, as President Donald Trump threatens new trade barriers against China, on which the United States must depend to help rein in an increasingly dangerous North Korea, these two issues have become closely connected. Yet US officials seem no closer to figuring them out. -Project Syndicate 

Poll: 61 percent of Americans have little to no confidence in Trump’s ability to handle international crisis -PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll

A ‘win’ in Afghanistan includes peace talks with the Taliban, say U.S. officials in Kabul -The Washington Post

John McCain’s fan club The veteran senator has mentored many senators — from both parties — to carry on his foreign policy worldview –Politico

In the Year of the Deciding Vote, one Democrat’s corruption trial could change the Senate — or not -The Washington Post


House Speaker Ryan says rates must be permanent in tax reform U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan on Thursday rejected speculation that future tax legislation could include temporary tax cuts for businesses, saying macro-economic elements of tax reform including rates must be permanent. -Reuters

America's permanent export emergency For 23 years, presidents have had to use emergency powers to control risky national-security technologies. Trump just became the latest. Will Congress ever fix it? -Politico

Free trade support for the Trump administration The Trump administration just announced an investigation into Chinese actions to coerce the transfer of intellectual property from American companies and individuals, as well as steal it outright. But this is a good initial response to predatory Chinese economic policies. -AEI

BED TIME FOR GONZO >> The Media Is Trump's Evil Empire Now, a policy of containment, preferably rollback, of the mainstream media occupies that central role. -Politico


Labor Wants to Make Nafta Its Friend. Here’s the Problem. Union officials are pinning their hopes on President Trump’s nationalist pronouncements, betting he can deliver what President Bill Clinton failed to put on the table nearly a quarter-century ago: real protection against cheap Mexican labor. -NYT

Why Florida Farmers Want to Kill Nafta As U.S. trade representatives sit down with their Canadian and Mexican counterparts to renegotiate Nafta, fruit and vegetable farmers have emerged as a staunch component of the anti-free-trade movement. -Bloomberg

Brazil's farm lobby to demand broader tax renegotiation program -Reuters




INTERMEDIARY LIABILITY >> Holding accountable That’s why I recently introduced the bipartisan Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act —to ensure websites that knowingly facilitate sex trafficking can be held liable and that victims can get justice. This bill simply clarifies Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act — the clause that courts credit to giving third-party providers blanket immunity from crimes committed through their websites. -U.S. Senator Rob Portman

Web hosting company ordered to turn over information on anti-Trump website Judge imposes safeguards, but data on 'innocent' users would still end up with government. -Politico

NO WORRIES GETTING ¥ OUT OF JAPAN >> SoftBank and Fund to Invest $4.4 Billion in WeWork -NYT DealBook

“We are thrilled to support WeWork as they expand across markets and geographies and unleash a new wave of productivity around the world,” Mr. Son

OR TAIWAN >> In wake of Foxconn deal, Wisconsin and Illinois vie for jobs -Reuters

Apple to build Iowa data center, get $207.8 million in incentives -Reuters


Knowing Where to Look 10 Years After Start of Financial Crisis -NYT

Bond Routs, Stock Surges: Jackson Hole Can Be Messy for Markets -Bloomberg

BRENT + WTI GO THEIR OWN WAY >> This Critical Oil Price Divergence Could Boost US Exports The gap between the two most important oil benchmarks has widened recently, a symptom of the shifting oil supply/demand dynamics between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

Mexico's Oil Output Falls Below 2 Million Barrels Per Day Mexico's crude oil output has fallen below 2 million barrels per day for the first time since comparable records were kept starting in 1990. -NYT