Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Italy, France, Germany ask EU to boost powers to block foreign acquisitions The request cited the 'golden powers' to bar or set conditions for would-be buyers "that operate with rules that do not follow the market and that do not respect rules of reciprocity for acquisitions," -Reuters

#CINA #CHINE #DAS CHINA  

READ >> Le Corre and Sepulchre’s China’s Offensive in Europe (Geopolitics in the 21st Century)

Emerging economies await end to ECB largesse with record euro debt Emerging economies' debt in euros has shot to record highs thanks to European Central Bank largesse, and yet an approaching end to this generosity won't necessarily inflict the kind of pain that markets once suffered at the hands of the U.S. Fed. -Reuters

Europe’s tech ambition: To be the world’s digital policeman The Continent’s policymakers want to determine how companies and their users behave online. -Politico.eu

EUROPE RISK

European Court of Justice not necessary or appropriate, says UK The UK is to tell the EU it is "neither necessary nor appropriate" for the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to police their relationship after Brexit. -BBC

Britain 'could remain under direct control of European court for years' Scale of Theresa May’s climbdown revealed as UK faces having to implement ECJ rulings on key issues such as immigration -The Guardian

Brexit: UK hopes of autumn trade talks 'will be dashed' -The Guardian

France's Macron, seeking to re-shape Europe, heads east While Britain toils over its messy divorce with the European Union, France's president Emmanuel Macron is embarking on a drive to deepen the economic integration of a bloc he says needs to be more protective of its citizens. -Reuters

Why does Emmanuel Macron’s presidential approval rating keep falling? -The Washington Post

Merkel’s rivals play Trump card on defense Taking a leaf out of an old campaign playbook, Social Democrats blast chancellor’s plans to boost military budget in line with calls from US president. -Politico.eu

Germany's rapid deportations of Salafist suspects ruled lawful The deportations of an Algerian and a Nigerian, both born in Germany and classed as dangerous, have been backed by Germany’s top administrative court. The evictions stem from a little-used clause in German residency law. -DW

Why Barcelona, a tourist paradise, is a ‘Salafist city’ -France24

Portugal Dominated Angola for Centuries. Now the Roles Are Reversed. Angola’s ruling class has profited so much during his tenure — and channeled so much of that money into Portugal — that when Angola threatened to cut off ties in recent years in response to reports that Angolan officials were being investigated for corruption in Portugal, Portugal’s foreign minister promptly apologized, setting off an intercontinental debate about the changing power dynamics between the nations. -NYT

The $78 trillion free lunch If borders were open; Yes, it would be disruptive. But the potential gains are so vast that objectors could be bribed to let it happen -The Economist

RUSSIA RISK

Putin names hardliner Anatoly Antonov as Russia's US ambassador Deputy foreign minister, seen as a tough negotiator, to replace Sergey Kislyak with Moscow-Washington ties at a low -The Guardian

U.S. halts visas for Russians, deepening a diplomatic spat -The Washington Post

The Achilles Heel of Putin’s Regime Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority is weaker than it seems. In fact, the bedrock of Putin’s power – the clientelist economic arrangements that he has assiduously consolidated over the past generation – has become the main threat to his political survival. -Project Syndicate

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Turkey is trying to extradite its political opponents from Europe By arresting a Turkish-German writer, Spain risks doing Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dirty work -The Economist

Germany's Gabriel hits back at Erdogan with call to back Turkish democracy -Reuters

Qatar’s Plucky Plan to Outlast the Saudi Embargo Top diplomats from Europe and the U.S. have paraded through Doha to reassure Sheikh Tamim, who controls the world’s third-largest reserves of natural gas. Turkey and Iran have stepped in to replenish Qatari warehouses with construction supplies and restock store shelves with parsley, milk, and other popular goods, foiling the embargo imposed by Saudi Arabia and its partners, Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates -Bloomberg Businessweek

Mattis Asks Iraqi Kurds to Put Off Vote on Independence Defense Secretary Jim Mattis asked the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region on Tuesday to postpone a referendum next month on Kurdish independence. -NYT

AFRICA RISK

Exclusive: U.S. to withhold up to $290 million in Egypt aid -Reuters

ELECTION WATCH >> Angola chooses successor to President Jose Eduardo dos Santos Many Angolans now hope for a political change, as Antonio Cascais reports from Luanda. -Angola

Senegal reinstates Qatar ambassador, hopes for end to Gulf feud -Reuters

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

EU scrutinizes Monsanto takeover by Bayer The EU Commission has announced it's opened an in-depth investigation into the mega takeover of Monsanto by Germany’s Bayer. Brussels said competition concerns had not been addressed sufficiently. -DW

Threat of price war clouds horizon for Maersk shipping business But competitors including Ocean Alliance -- a newly-created partnership between France's CMA CGM, China's Cosco, Hong Kong's OOCL and Taiwan's Evergreen -- will this year launch a string of ultra-large vessels and will have little choice but to chase a bigger slice of the market. -Reuters

Maersk's Not-So-Total Break It's hardly a seller's market for oil and gas assets. Yet Denmark's A.P. Moller–Maersk A/S seems to have achieved a decent deal in the $7.5 billion sale of its oil operations to France's Total SA -Bloomberg Gadfly

US sanctions Chinese, Russian firms for North Korea ties The US has blacklisted 16 Chinese and Russian entities for their role in North Korea's weapons development. -DW

BHP Billiton to sell US shale business -BBC

Wanda Walks Away From London Land Purchase Amid China Scrutiny -Bloomberg

Anger and glee in Silicon Valley chatter about Google’s antitrust woes Tech employees take to workplace app Blind to discuss pros and cons of €2.4 billion sanction against Google. -Politico.eu

YouTube Removes Videos Showing Atrocities in Syria -NYT

Cairn raises estimate for Senegal oil reserves Cairn Energy has raised its estimate of the amount of oil that could be extracted from its fields off Senegal by a fifth following recent drilling successes. -The Times

GLOBAL MACRO

SAYING NOTHING WITH MANY WORDS >> Draghi Urges Open-Minded Central Banking as Economy Changes Mario Draghi said central banks must be open-minded on policy innovations as they prepare for future economic developments -- even if that concept is not clear to everyone. -Bloomberg

Strong euro leads big bond buyers into government debt rethink -Reuters

Sterling sinks to 8-week low vs. dollar -Reuters

Switch to Renewables Won't End the Geopolitics of Energy Countries that dominate the export of rare-earth minerals will be the petrostates of tomorrow. -Bloomberg View 

Greek government bond yields dip after Fitch upgrade Greek government bond yields dipped early on Monday after Fitch became the second ratings agency to upgrade it to "Single B" status, marking another milestone in the debt-laden state's slow journey away from default territory. -Reuters