Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

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GLOBAL RISK

World's biggest shipper: cyberattack cost up to $300 million The June cyberattack that paralyzed the computer systems in companies around the world is estimated to have cost the world's biggest container shipping line between $200 million and $300 million, A.P. Moller-Maersk said Wednesday. -AP

How brands respond to political crisis The Trump administration offers plenty of moments for brands in crisis -Vox

U.S. RISK

The Incredible Shrinking President Without effective leadership, the United States is just one country among many. -The American Interest

U.S. SENATE IN ASCENT >> Key Republican Calls for ‘Radical Changes’ in Trump’s Presidency -Bloomberg

“We’re at a point where there needs to be radical changes take place at the White House itself. It has to happen,” Senator Bob Corker

Mattis, Tillerson in WSJ: 'We're Holding Pyongyang to Account' -WSJ/Newsmax

Steve Bannon, Unrepentant -The American Prospect

“We’re at economic war with China,”

Bannon is right about North Korea Bannon’s view is that any preemptive attack on North Korea would result in horrendous casualties in South Korea and elsewhere and therefore cannot be seriously considered. That view is shared by many officials, former officials and North Korea experts. Whether President Trump believes it is unknown. -The Washington Post

RUN FROM THE BORDER >> U.S. Begins Nafta Negotiations With Harsh Words Mr. Lighthizer said Wednesday that over time the United States has run a significant trade deficit with Canada, too. -NYT

Such trade deficits, Mr. Lighthizer said, “can’t continue.”

NAFTA: The hard work to modernize the agreement begins now Trade with Canada and Mexico tops $3.3 billion daily and supports 14 million American jobs. NAFTA also strengthens the United States geopolitically by promoting political and economic stability across our continent, our hemisphere, and throughout the world. -Fox News Opinion

US biz community is in a tough place; here

DIG DEEPER >> National Digital Newspaper Program is a long-term effort to develop an Internet-based, searchable database of U.S. newspapers with descriptive information and select digitization of historic pages. -Library of Congress

HERE TOO >> Statistics on the Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises Now Available for 2015; Revised Data Available for 2014 -BEA

Here are some highlights from the statistics:

·       The current-dollar value added of majority-owned U.S. affiliates, a measure of their direct contribution to U.S. gross domestic product, totaled $894.5 billion in 2015

·       the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Switzerland, and the Netherlands —accounted for nearly three-fourths of the value added by all majority-owned U.S. affiliates in 2015

·       Majority-owned U.S. affiliates employed 6.8 million workers

·       The states with the largest shares of total private industry employment accounted for by U.S. affiliates in 2015 were New Jersey (8.1 percent), South Carolina (8.0 percent), and New Hampshire (7.7 percent)

·       Exports of goods by affiliates decreased in 2015 by $70.3 billion, or 16.6 percent, and imports decreased by $51.2 billion, or 7.2 percent

·       Research and development performed by affiliates totaled $56.7 billion in 2015, a 0.4 percent decrease from 2014

AMERICAS

In Latin America, Pence Aims to Soften ‘America First’ Message -NYT

Trudeau Weighs Mexico Visit During Nafta Talks Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is considering making his first visit to Mexico in October amid talks to update the North American Free Trade Agreement -Bloomberg

The Mexican Paradox Few economies pose as big a paradox as Mexico’s. Emerging from a series of macroeconomic crises in the mid-1990s, Mexico undertook bold reforms that should have put it on track for rapid economic growth. -Project Syndicate

Exporting Chaos to Venezuela Venezuela, with possibly the world’s largest oil reserves, had a chance to become one of South America’s leading democracies. Mr. Maduro turned the country into an economic basket case and himself into a dictator. -NYT

Bolivia's Morales Goes Down an Ugly Road A superhighway linking the Andes with the Amazon may hurt indigenous groups and help coca growers. -Bloomberg View 

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT +

OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

HUGE PUT >> What Is Trump Worth to Twitter? One Analyst Estimates $2 Billion -Bloomberg

CEOs to move their White House talks underground Still eager to work on tax reform, infrastructure and health care, business leaders will focus on Trump aides and agency officials. -Politico

White House disbands another advisory council, this one on infrastructure -The Washington Post

On sidelines of trade talks, businesses tout NAFTA's benefits Steps away from this week's NAFTA trade negotiations, business unified in hopes of sending a singular message: do no harm. -Reuters

Uber wins U.S. court appeal to push price-fixing case to arbitration Uber Technologies Inc [UBER.UL] on Thursday won a victory in its effort to keep unhappy customers from suing in court, persuading a federal appeals court to send a Connecticut passenger's price-fixing case against the ride-service company into arbitration. -Reuters

MoneyGram-Ant Financial Merger On Track, High Costs Hurt The transaction, which is expected to close by the end of this year, will strengthen MoneyGram’s business, which operates in an intensively competitive and fast-changing payments industry. -Yahoo Finance

Query: whether the financial assessment here, is politically viable?

Wisconsin debates billions in incentives for Foxconn plant -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

Washington's mounting woes push S&P to biggest loss in three months U.S. stocks sold off on Thursday, with the S&P 500 recording its biggest daily percentage drop in three months as escalating worries about the Trump administration's ability to push through its economic agenda rattled investors. -Reuters

Is Trump Killing the Dollar? -Project Syndicate

Strangling Puerto Rico in Order to Save It Worst of all, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Puerto Rico ended up with $73 billion in debt that it couldn’t pay, and it officially defaulted in 2015. -NYT

A Mexican Oil Renaissance Could Thaw US Relations -The American Interest

Venezuela's political crisis could cause gas prices in the US to jump With Venezuela being so heavily economically dependent on the sale of crude oil to the U.S. (with the U.S. being its primary buyer and Venezuela ranking as the third largest exporter of crude oil to the U.S.), global oil and gas investors are concerned about four sanctions that may be implemented by the U.S. government. -Business Insider

BEGIN THE BEGIN >> Bank jitters over Venezuela stall oil delivery to U.S. refiner -Reuters