Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

From Putin to Zuma to Trump, voters put personality over policy -Reuters Commentary

READ WEBER >> Economy and Society

Three types of authority:

1. Bureaucratic

2. Traditional

3. Charismatic

How Technology Might Get Out of Control The pace of change may make regulation by humans impossible. Humanity has a method for trying to prevent new technologies from getting out of hand: explore the possible negative consequences, involving all parties affected, and come to some agreement on ways to mitigate them. New research, though, suggests that the accelerating pace of change could soon render this approach ineffective. -Bloomberg   

CEOs generally upbeat despite geopolitical instability –McKinsey

Geopolitical instability tops the list of risks across all segments globally, and has seen considerable growth over the past three months. 71% of European respondents said geopolitical instability is a risk to the global economy for the next 12 months, up from 55% in March.

EUROPE RISK

Europe’s Refugees The drama has also raised questions about the EU’s commitment to its passport-free zone — one of the bloc’s crowning achievements — as leaders squabbled over balancing moral and legal obligations with anti-immigrant sentiment. -Bloomberg View 

Migrant flow to Italy shrinks as government in Rome cracks down -The Washington Post

France's Emmanuel Macron: Mixed reviews for first 100 days He is the youngest president in the history of the Fifth Republic, and is popular abroad. Yet Emmanuel Macron has earned mixed reviews at home in the first 100 days after his election. DW looks at his presidency so far. -DW

YES >> UK sets out Brexit customs plan In the first of a dozen position papers, London proposes leaving EU customs union but keeping a ‘close association’ for a limited time. The position paper is the first of up to 12 expected to be published before October, when the European Council will rule on whether talks on the withdrawal agreement have made sufficient progress to proceed to the next phase -Politico.eu

NIEN/NON >> EU dismisses Britain’s post-Brexit customs plan Brussels reasserted its position that the terms of the UK’s divorce must be settled before they will discuss plans for future relations between the two. -Politico.eu

Who's Building Brexit Britain? The French Brexit Britain is slipping behind France in the economic stakes in more ways than one. The title of world's fifth-biggest economy is emblematic, but it's the world of construction that shows up the starkest differences. -Bloomberg Gadfly

RUSSIA RISK

The problem isn’t Putin, it’s Russia As relations worsen, US must realize Russia will not soon, if ever, become a liberal democracy. -Politico.eu

“Washington and Moscow must recognize that the mounting global disorder necessitates a more balanced relationship.”

Putin Says Military Overhaul to Go Ahead Despite Budget Cuts -Moscow Times

U.S. sanctions hit Russian hopes of a 'Trump bump' for investment After Trump became U.S. president, some investors said they would be prepared to contemplate new deals with Russian firms if they saw signs that U.S.-Russian ties were improving and U.S. restrictions on business with Russia were being relaxed. -Reuters

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Sigmar Gabriel: Hard-line Turkey policy is paying off German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel has praised his government's move to put "economic pressure" on Turkey. Germany overhauled its policy toward Turkey in response to the jailing of German journalists and activists. -DW

Iran could quit nuclear deal 'within hours' if US adds new sanctions -France24

AFRICA RISK

Burkina Faso gun attack kills 18 people at café -BBC

South African President Jacob Zuma survives no-confidence vote by Parliament South African President Jacob Zuma survived a parliamentary vote Tuesday that could have pushed him from office, hanging on to sufficient backing within his African National Congress party amid growing claims of corruption and worries about a stumbling economy. -The Washington Post

Few heed opposition's call for strike in Kenya Life on Monday returned to normal in most of Kenya, despite a call for a strike by the opposition. It insists the elections were rigged and refused to concede defeat, raising fears of more violence. -DW

Democracy Is Rwanda’s Losing Candidate But his election to a third term last week with a ludicrous 99 percent of the vote, against two opponents, is further evidence that despite Mr. Kagame’s achievements, he has all the makings of yet another strongman going through the motions of democracy. -NYT

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

German government steps in to keep Air Berlin flying Air Berlin forced to file for insolvency after Etihad, which holds a 29 percent stake in the German carrier, withdrew funding. -Politico.eu

Paris cracks down on Airbnb renters with harsher fines Paris authorities are cracking down on homeowners who rent out their properties for longer than the legal limit, with fines increasing more than thirteenfold since last year. -France24

Brexit Down on the Farm if British politicians and business leaders are right, it also creates an important opportunity: the possibility of building a safer, greener, more efficient, and more innovative farming sector. -Project Syndicate

Brexit claims another victim: Britain’s venture capitalists Prominent industry figures say European Investment Fund turned off tap after UK triggered exit process. -Politico.eu

Iran freezes assets of BBC Persian staff in crackdown on journalists Broadcaster condemns Tehran’s block on Iranian employees’ financial transactions after re-election of Hassan Rouhani -The Guardian 

GLOBAL MACRO

Europe Stocks Rise Most in a Month as Geopolitical Tensions Ease -Bloomberg

Germany's top court raises doubts about ECB asset purchases Germany's constitutional court has called into question the European Central Bank's asset purchases, saying they might overstep the central bank's powers, referring the case instead to the European Court of Justice. -DW

Geopolitics at the fore: volatility re-emerges, risk-off likely to prevail in the GCC markets In a nutshell, global oil inventories continue to decline. However, market rebalancing is likely to be much protracted and we continue to expect rangebound oil prices in the short- to medium term. -Gulf News

Libya's Sharara oilfield output dropped after security breaches -Reuters