Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays




North Korea announces plan to fire missiles toward Guam North Korea has announced a detailed plan to launch a salvo of ballistic missiles toward the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, a major military hub and home to U.S. bombers. If carried out, it would be the North's most provocative missile launch to date. -AP

Gaming out the North Korea crisis: How the conflict might escalate -The Washington Post

What Trump Needs to Know About North Korea's History The peninsula has a long record of risky games with great powers. -Politico

DIG DEEPER INTO THE ARCHIVES >>Cold War International History Project -The Wilson Center



Trump’s Generals Are Trying to Save the World. Starting With the White House. The president has handed huge power to a group of military officers, and they’re out to solve two big problems: Obama's policies, and their boss. -Politico

A Russian military spy plane cruised the skies over Washington and New Jersey on Wednesday — in a perfectly legal bit of aerial reconnaissance that nonetheless appeared to be an attempt to troll President Donald Trump. -Politico

Tillerson's Tenure: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly Rex Tillerson is used to being the top dog in his organization. However, during his nearly six months at the State Department, Tillerson has quickly discovered that serving as America’s top diplomat isn’t a very rewarding experience—especially when the position requires that he report to a president who doesn’t particularly care for or appreciate the work diplomats have to offer. -The National Interest

Judges sets Oct. 18 arguments in Trump foreign emoluments suit -Politico

What Will Be In Trump's Tax Reform? Here are some predictions about tax reform, parsing the over-hyped Big Six joint statement on tax reform.

  •  A corporate rate cut will be the centerpiece
  • The border adjustment died
  • There will be a special rate for partnerships and S corporations
  • Immediate expensing is a goal



U.S. Needs Latin America for Pressure on Venezuela to Work Experts say there still are steps the U.S. can take on its own, but ultimately its best hope lays in rallying with other countries to take action and working with Latin American and Caribbean countries. -NBC News




Inside Washington's Soft-Power Sanctions War Congress voted to tighten economic sanctions against Russia. Embargoes once were imposed only occasionally and after serious debate. Today legislators and presidents think nothing of banning investment, trade and other contacts with foreign peoples and nations. They punish people and companies from other countries—such as Europe in the case of the anti-Russia legislation—for not following America’s rules. -The National Interest

Trump D.C. hotel turns $2 million profit in four months -The Washington Post

Who’s Afraid of Sinclair Broadcasting? [D]emanding that the Federal Communications Commission block the deal-Politico

The Foxconn deal Trump championed won’t make Wisconsin money for 25 years, report says -The Washington Post

Kia Mexico optimistic about exports even if NAFTA falters The Mexican subsidiary of Korean car maker Kia Motors said Wednesday that it would be well-positioned to export its compact vehicles even if the upcoming renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement does not yield positive results. -Reuters


Fed Taper Plan Brings Risk to Mortgage Debt Unseen in Treasuries For all the talk that Janet Yellen’s plan to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will hurt Treasuries, U.S. mortgage bonds face a bigger test. -Bloomberg

Dalio Recommends Gold as Hedge Against Rising Political Risk -Bloomberg

There's Still Too Much Risk in the Financial System For 10 years, central banks have done what they could to keep markets stable. Governments can't say the same -Bloomberg

Chile finance minister Valdes sees economy rebounding Chile's economy is likely to gain significant momentum in coming months and register growth in the last quarter of 3 percent, propelled by a recovery in mining investment and improved trade within South America -Reuters

Credit Suisse Bans Trading in Venezuela Debt Faulted by Critics -Bloomberg