Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Trump, in Poland, Asks if West Has the ‘Will to Survive’ President Trump said on Thursday that Western civilization was at risk of decline, bringing a message about “radical Islamic terrorism” and “the creep of government bureaucracy” to the one European capital he views as most hospitable to his nationalist message. -NYT

The Fight over Nationalism Is About to Get Messy The storm is gathering. The next great battle in the world war of ideas will be over the meaning of nationalism. It’s a fight the United States cannot afford to lose—and one that the Trump administration will have to go “over there” to win. -The National Interest

U.S. RISK

Trump and Putin meet tomorrow (or today). -The Washington Post

Here are 6 things to watch …

1. Ukraine

2. Syria

3. North Korea

4. Russian domestic politics

5. U.S. domestic politics

6. Trump and Putin, face to face

Russia sanctions bill hits new hurdle in House As President Donald Trump prepares to meet Vladimir Putin on Friday, a bipartisan congressional attempt to constrain Trump's ability to warm up to Russia is running into new trouble — opening a new partisan schism -Politico

Tough Choices for American Diplomacy Carnegie President William J. Burns makes the case for why diplomacy should be America’s tool of first resort in today’s world. -Carnegie (video)

Time for Trump to Get Tough on China Beijing has failed to rein in North Korea. A little hardball might get Chinese leaders’ attention. -Politico

US bomber planes fly over East and South China Seas -BBC

Hawaii, Alaska contemplate coming into North Korean missile range -Reuters

Russians Are Suspects in Nuclear Site Hackings, Sources Say Hackers working for a foreign government recently breached at least a dozen U.S. power plants, including the Wolf Creek nuclear facility in Kansas, according to current and former U.S. officials, sparking concerns the attackers were searching for vulnerabilities in the electrical grid. -Bloomberg

AMERICAS

Mob Attacks Maduro Opponents as It Storms Venezuela’s National Assembly -NYT

Venezuela in Crisis The sharp decline in oil prices in recent years has crippled Venezuela’s economy and left the Maduro government teetering on the brink. -CFR

Peru Steps Up Rainforest Protection as Police Raid Illegal Mines -Bloomberg

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT +

OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

U.S. judge allows Twitter lawsuit over surveillance to move forward -Reuters

Interior aims to speed oil and gas permitting on public lands with 30-day reviews The Interior Department, intent on boosting oil and gas production on federal lands, issued an order on Thursday designed to speed up the permitting process for drilling.  -The Washington Post

READ IT HERE >> ORDER NO 3354

Tesla Is Starting to Face Serious Competition Volvo's two biggest markets have excellent incentives for electric vehicle production and bad ones for imports. -Bloomberg View 

U.S. charges ex-Audi manager in emissions cheating case The U.S. Justice Department said on Thursday it charged a former Audi manager with directing employees at the company, a division of Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE), to design software to cheat U.S. emissions tests in thousands of Audi diesel cars. -Reuters

Vancouver Extends Airbnb Rules as Home Prices Keep Rising -Bloomberg

GLOBAL MACRO

Oil Exports, Illegal for Decades, Now Fuel a Texas Port Boom Crude from West Texas shale fields is increasingly making its way abroad as a pipeline system is expanded to take it to market through Corpus Christi. -NYT

Elon Musk Won't Save Big Mining The world's biggest mining companies have more or less recovered from the commodity boom and bust of the past decade. At the same time, they've been left with an existential crisis: What minerals are going to drive their growth in the decades to come? -Bloomberg Gadfly

Saving Emerging Markets From Trump It is easy to sympathize with Mexico now that US President Donald Trump has turned that country into a political piñata. If Trump gets his way, Mexico’s northern border will feature a “big, beautiful wall,” and the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is crucial to Mexico’s economy, will be renegotiated to satisfy an “America first” agenda. And if that were not enough, Mexican capital and currency markets will bear the brunt of the pain from unstable US monetary and fiscal policy. -Project Syndicate