Geopolitical Risk Tracker

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Should China Deleverage? China’s mounting debt problem recently moved into the spotlight when Moody’s downgraded the country’s sovereign rating. But was the downgrade really warranted? -Project Syndicate

CHINA RISK

Trump to speak with Xi, Abe as North Korea, steel issues loom -Reuters

Chinese Ways of Empire, Then and Now In 30 more years, Hong Kong will fully revert to the mainland. Much could happen between now and 2047, and the tea leaves are already out there waiting to be read: There are many old — even ancient — historical precedents showing how the Chinese central authorities first manage rebellious peoples on the periphery before eventually subjugating them. -NYT

India-China: Border stand-off may hit India-China efforts to put behind 1962 memories -Economic Times

Did Beijing just gain Panama and lose Taipei? The Republic of China is now officially recognised by only 19 nations, but it’s “unofficial” ties with major global players that really matter -SCMP

Turn Off, Drop Out: Why Young Chinese Are Abandoning Ambition -News Lens

HONG KONG

President Xi Jinping marks ‘red line’ in warning to Hong Kong on national sovereignty In a tough speech that also calls for consensus, the president warns that any challenge to Beijing is ‘absolutely impermissible’ -SCMP

Mass protests hit Hong Kong hours after Xi Jinping's departure Chinese president issues stern warning on challenge to Beijing's authority -Nikkei

Hong Kong Activists Urge Mass Protest amid ‘Whole New Level of Intimidation, Violence’ -NewsLens

“What we’ve experienced this weekend was a whole new level of intimidation and direct violence,” activist

PODCAST OF THE WEEK>> PS Voice: Chris Patten on a Life in Global Politics -Project Syndicate (audio)

OR READ>> China’s Hong Kong at 20 -Project Syndicate

JAPAN RISK

ELECTION WATCH>> Koike camp dethrones Abe’s LDP in historic Tokyo assembly election Gov. Yuriko Koike’s upstart Tomin First party was headed for a resounding victory Sunday in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election and looked likely to dethrone the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, delivering a blow to Shinzo Abe’s future prospects as prime minister. -The Japan Times

Japan-EU trade pact continues to elude over auto, dairy tariffs -The Japan Times

TAIWAN RISK

China's aircraft carrier battle group enters Taiwan's ADIZ -Focus Taiwan

Taiwan arms sale, North Korea sanctions outrage Beijing in test of U.S.-China ties under Trump -The Washington Post

US arms to boost capabilities A proposed US arms package to Taiwan worth US$1.42 billion would greatly improve the survivability and airborne time of the nation’s jets in the event of armed conflict, while offering enhanced area denial capabilities for submarines -Taipei Times

China aims to cut Taiwan-HK ties -Taipei Times

MONGOLIA RISK

ELECTION WATCH>> JULY 7, 2017 Mongolia's presidential election forced into a second round No candidate has won an outright victory in Mongolia's presidential election meaning the first ever run-off between two leading candidates will be held next month, the General Election Committee -Reuters

Mongolia’s rumbling resource nationalism Mongolian stocks tanked in the aftermath of the first-round presidential contest, cast as a referendum on the ruling People’s Party (MPP) IMF program-related economic policies, before stabilizing for a 2% gain through end-June on the Bloomberg 20 leading companies index. -Asia Times

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

U.S. announces sanctions on Chinese bank, arms-sales package for Taiwan -The Washington Post

China Is About to Bury Elon Musk in Batteries Chinese companies have plans for additional factories with the capacity to pump out more than 120 gigawatt-hours a year by 2021 By comparison, when completed in 2018, Tesla Inc.’s Gigafactory will crank out up to 35 gigawatt-hours of battery cells annually. -Bloomberg

Opinion: The new Chinese sharing economy does not exist -Tech-in-Asia

Cheer Up, Japan Inc. Shareholders are gripped by a sense of dread that the great corporate leaders that helped build the world's third-largest economy are losing their grip. The fear is spreading to even the best-run companies. While those emotions are understandable, investors would be wise not to wallow in them. -Bloomberg

New home-sharing law may give HomeAway the edge over rival Airbnb Japan’s home-sharing market is poised for a shift away from couch surfing toward professional services after the passage of a law regulating short-term rentals. -The Japan Times

Jugnoo becomes India’s first on-demand transportation app to turn cash positive -Tech-in-Asia

Indonesia sets tariff ranges for online car-hailing services Indonesia has set minimum and maximum tariffs for online car-hailing services, aiming to ensure comparable pricing with conventional transport providers whose drivers have complained about being undercut by their newer competitors. -Reuters

7-Eleven shuts all convenience stores in Indonesia Local operator failed to compete with minimarkets -Taiwan News

GLOBAL MACRO

As Beijing Joins Climate Fight, Chinese Companies Build Coal Plants -NYT

Hong Kong markets feel the crush of mainland money Mainland offshore financing needs tint local IPOs and property market -Nikkei

Debt-saddled Vietnam turns to private-sector funding The borrowing limit puts infrastructure payments in arrears -Nikkei