Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Riding in Cabs with Joseph Nye Joseph S. Nye discusses great power politics with PS’s Mark Leonard, the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations -Project Syndicate (video)

U.S. could conduct another THAAD test next weekend -The Japan Times

CHINA RISK

Former Chongqing party boss Sun Zhengcai - from political star to 'sacrificial object' Within five days of publicly vowing absolute loyalty to Mr Xi and extolling his "superlative political wisdom", Mr Sun was dismissed and put under investigation and has since disappeared, his career terminated by the man he had praised. -The Straits Times

China in Baltic navy drill with Russia -BBC

HONG KONG

Hong Kong people don’t need any history lessons from mainland China, thanks Shen Jian says the story of Hong Kong is not a story of humiliation, and it doesn’t start with the Treaty of Nanking – even if that’s what Beijing and its supporters want us to believe -SCMP

Another nail in Hong Kong’s coffin A Hong Kong court ruled last week that four pro-democracy lawmakers in the Special Administrative Region (SAR) were disqualified from serving in the Legislative Council by failing to take their oath of office seriously. The decision is a blow to both judicial and political autonomy in Hong Kong — a violation of the “one country, two systems” model that Beijing agreed to support for the city when it reverted to Chinese control in 1997 — and shifts the balance of power in the legislature in China’s favor. -The Japan Times

JAPAN RISK

Japan-China rapprochement so near, yet so far Talk of summit and warmer ties belies the frost beneath Some analysts have also detected a potential shift in another important and often overlooked geopolitical relationship, that between Japan and China, with numerous eminent commentators in Asia and the U.S. cautiously canvassing a possible rapprochement. -Nikkei

Dokdo-Takeshima Islands: South Korea And Japan’s Intractable Maritime Dispute –Eurasia Review 

Championing TPP 2.0 could give Abe his global moment It may already be too late for Shinzo Abe, as his Cabinet support rates fall even lower than U.S. President Donald Trump’s. Between scandals, legislative overreach and tepid wage growth, the prime minister’s domestic political capital is evaporating. -The Japan Times

TAIWAN RISK

China upset about 'negative' Taiwan content in U.S. defense bill -Reuters

American Institute in Taiwan reaffirms commitment to Relations Act The United States continues its strong commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act and seeks to resolve "trade irritants" affecting U.S. companies and investments in Taiwan, the head of the American Institute in Taiwan said. -UPI

The Chinese Cult of Cairo and the Status of Taiwan After World War II, Taiwan was never formally returned to China — whether the ROC or the PRC. -The Diplomat

MONGOLIA RISK

Mongolia First Khaltmaa Battulga’s journey from yurt to the presidency is a modern adventure. -Politico

IFC Helps Mongolia Strengthen Investment-Climate Reform and Restore Investor Confidence -The Financial

Russo-Sino-Mongolian Transit and Infrastructure Cooperation and Mongolia’s New President -Jamestown

Villas v yurts in Mongolia Tent-dwellers apparently ruin the view from Ulaanbaatar’s grander neighbourhoods. These neighbourhoods, called ger districts after the Mongolian word for yurt, house 60% of the city’s population. Instead, the southern edge of the city, and especially an area called Zaisan, is home to the wealthiest of Mongolia’s emerging upper class, as well as many expatriates. -The Economist

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

Why China and the US cannot afford to ignore Asean Tom Plate says neither great power can afford geopolitical myopia, if China seeks stability in the neighbourhood and America wants to ensure that ignorance does not lead to greater distance with the region -SCMP

Sea Power: US Maritime Leadership in Asia Insights from Admiral James Stavridis. -The Diplomat

Geopolitical Rivalry, Security and Inequality Are Asean's Key Challenges: FM -Jakarta Post 

Philippines Plans New Law to Ensure Responsible Mining Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said on Friday (21/07) the government will draft a new law for the country's mining industry, which he said pays too little in tax and not enough in compensation for any environmental damage. -Jakarta Post

Taiwan says seven nationals detained in Cambodia for telecom fraud Cambodia has detained seven Taiwan nationals suspected of running a telecoms scam, the self-ruled island said on Thursday, adding that it is trying to bring them home and avoid their deportation to China, which gave information for the crackdown. -Reuters

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

The U.S. Firms at Risk From China Trade War: QuickTake Scorecard -Bloomberg

1. Hollywood

2. Boeing

3. Westinghouse

4. Starbucks

5. Tesla

6. Apple

7. McDonald’s

8. Ford

9. Amazon.com

10. Justin Bieber + Winnie the Pooh  

‘Annoying’ Bieber barred from China over 2014 Yasukuni visit -The Japan Times

China drags its feet on opening market to electronic payments like Visa and MasterCard Instead, new guidelines recently issued by the People’s Bank of China suggest it could be another two or more years before U.S. firms can provide those services on equal footing with the domestic champion, UnionPay, industry officials said. -Politico

MARKET ACCESS>> To win blockbuster spots on China's coverage list, Big Pharma offers big discounts The Chinese government will add three dozen new drugs to its national insurance program, including some blockbuster foreign medicines like Roche’s Herceptin, Johnson & Johnson’s Velcade, Celgene’s Revlimid and AstraZeneca’s Brilinta.

The surprise? Another round of insurance coverage changes in less than half a year. The not-so-surprising? Big price cuts. -FiercePharma

In China, Silicon Valley Giants Confront New Walls -NYT

Geely: The astonishing rise of a small Chinese car company Ten years ago, Geely Automotive was a car pipsqueak, a maker of problem-prone machines with names like King Kong and Beauty Leopard, and with sticker prices under $10,000. When Chinese consumers couldn’t afford a better car, they turned to Geely. -SupChina

Toyota may mass produce electric cars in China in 2019 Carmaker fears being left out as Beijing readies 'new energy' quota -Nikkei

Mongolians love their Prius hybrids A secondhand model carries price tag of $2,000 to $6000 -Nikkei 

Honda opens automobile, motorcycle proving ground in Thailand -The Japan Times

Airbnb extends market leadership through experience-based tourism Industry tries to adapt to room sharing pioneer's disruption -Nikkei

U.S. makes final finding rebar exports from Taiwan dumped -Reuters

Taiwan to Conditionally Lift 16-year-old Import Ban on Japanese Beef -Bloomberg

GLOBAL MACRO

Chinese outbound investment boom falters The total value of deals in first half of 2017 down 43% on the year he boom in Chinese outbound investments since 2014 has apparently hit a speed bump amid tighter capital control and President Xi Jinping's call for deleveraging. -Nikkei

HNA Finds Wall St.’s Enthusiasm for Chinese Conglomerates Is Cooling -NYT

Kansai Electric to import 1.2m tons a year of US shale gas Japanese utility aims to cut dependency on Australian, Middle Eastern sources -Nikkei

Malaysia's Petronas Delivers First LNG Cargo to Thailand's PTT -Jakarta Post

Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has affirmed Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB- with a Positive Outlook. -TEMP.CO

Time to go for gold? The yellow metal has held up well this year as one of the best performers across various commodities, with spot prices up 8 per cent to around US$1,248 per ounce on Friday. -The Straits Times