Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Globalism and Nationalism Why Interconnectedness Does Not Threaten Sovereignty This growing international interconnectedness, however, did not signify a blanket rejection of all national political units and communities. What it meant was that polities of all scales—nations, empires, federal unions, non-state communities, and international organizations—were adjusted to fit the reality of new interdependencies. -Foreign Affairs

Germany’s G20 blame game Merkel’s conservatives take the high road, blaming not the opposition center left that runs Hamburg, but rioters themselves. -Politico.eu

The G20’s Harmony Without Trump -Project Syndicate

One man’s protest is another’s harmony …

EUROPE RISK

Is the world ready for a strong German leader? -The Conversation

Macron’s ambitions run into economic reality The new French president will need all the authority he can get He has said France needs a “Jupiter-like” president: remote and dignified, like the Roman king of the gods. (This sounds less conceited in French than it does in English, but has still raised eyebrows.) Mr Macron’s supporters say he needs to invest his office with more authority to pass ambitious reforms. -The Economist

Brexit can still be stopped The UK’s act of self-harm can still be reversed, but only if the British public plays its part. -Politico.eu

Balkan states sit in endless EU waiting room as Trieste summit approaches All talk, no action? Cooperative economic projects have been the hot topic ahead of a conference between leaders from the EU and Western Balkan countries. But EU expansion in the region remains as elusive as ever. -DW

EU rights court upholds Belgian ban on full-face niqab veil -France24

RUSSIA RISK

Senior U.S., Russian diplomats to meet in Washington next week -Reuters

Opposition May Benefit From ‘Crisis’ Hitting Russian Political Parties -Moscow Times

PODCAST OF THE WEEK>> What Russians really think of America (Lisa Dickey, author, 'Bears in the Streets') -Recode/Decode (audio)

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Thousands mass to mark anti-Erdogan rally in Istanbul -France24

U.S., Qatar sign agreement on combating terrorism financing -Reuters

Qatar being punished for embracing American ideals On June 21, the U.S. Department of State announced it was "mystified" by the bullying of the State of Qatar by, among others, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who had broken diplomatic relations, closed all borders, airspace and sea lanes in an attempt to shut down their neighbor's economy. -The Hill

AFRICA RISK

Elections 'not possible' yet in DR Congo -France24

U.S. threatens more sanctions for hindering democracy in Congo The United States on Tuesday threatened to impose further targeted unilateral sanctions on anyone who hinders Democratic Republic of Congo's already delayed preparations for an election to replace President Joseph Kabila. -Reuters

Zambia extends state of emergency by three months - presidency office -Reuters

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Google taps top law firms to fight EU regulatory battles: sources -Reuters

Britain Has a Few Ideas About Uber It's easy to poke fun at Britain's government dysfunction. But there's at least one policy area where it's having a sophisticated debate with global implications: how to regulate "gig economy" companies such as Uber Technologies Inc. and Deliveroo so they don't exploit workers or skimp on taxes. -Bloomberg Gadfly

National Insurance tax hit for gig economy firms -BBC

Siemens sees itself as a victim in the Crimean affair The controversy over the delivery of Siemens gas turbines to Crimea is spreading. The group is now taking legal action in Moscow. But to what extent has the German company violated EU sanctions? -DW

Israel arrests Netanyahu allies over German submarine deal Israeli police have arrested seven people on suspicion of corruption following a deal to buy submarines from German company ThyssenKrupp. German authorities have launched their own investigation. -DW

British Court Allows Arms Sales to Saudis, Rejecting Criticism Over Yemen A British court ruled on Monday that Britain’s extensive sales of arms to Saudi Arabia are legal, rejecting claims by rights groups that the Saudis have violated international law by using those weapons to kill civilians in Yemen’s civil war. -NYT

Electronics ban on EgyptAir flights to U.S. to be lifted Wednesday: chairman -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

Why Germany’s current-account surplus is bad for the world economy The country saves too much and spends too little -The Economist

U.S. LNG In Central And Eastern Europe - Taking Diversification Seriously Much of Duda’s statement is political rhetoric given that LTAs are not signed between governments. Instead these contracts are commercial decisions made by individual companies. But the strong rhetoric coming from both governments in support for U.S. LNG exports to CEE is an indicator that beyond economic aspect, this trade has strong geopolitical dimension. -Forbes

Gold Buyers Flee a Month After Their Most Bullish Bet of '17 -Bloomberg