Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Digital readiness can sustain growth of emerging Asia New fundamentals can transform boom-bust narrative But the underlying story in many emerging markets today, particularly in Asia, will be based on new fundamentals that will help transform the narrative from one of caution to expectations of sustained success. This story will be about digital readiness: internet technology expertise, use and investment. -Nikkei

Why Build Financially Inclusive Economies? The theme of this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, is “shaping an interconnected world,” and when leaders get down to business, many of the highest-profile topics – climate change, counter-terrorism, trade – will take center stage. But the attention received by a less well-known agenda item will be no less critical to ensuring global prosperity: digital financial inclusion. -Project Syndicate

CHINA RISK

Xi Jinping and China’s Traditionalist Restoration Fast forward to today’s China and the head of China’s Communist Party is actively promoting a wave of neotraditionalism. Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized the need to “advance and enrich outstanding traditional Chinese culture (中华优秀传统文化)” -Jamestown China Brief

China's all-seeing surveillance state is reading its citizens' faces Ms Gan Liping pumped her bike across a busy street, racing to beat a crossing light before it turned red. She didn't make it. Immediately, her face popped up on two video screens above the street. "Jaywalkers will be captured using facial-recognition technology," the screens said. -The Straits Times

China’s Newest Censorship Methods on Display A month riddled with perilous anniversaries offers a showcase for the Communist Party’s upgraded internet controls. -The Diplomat

Rural Chinese in no hurry to settle in cities after all Relative value of urban residency declines to the surprise of 'hukou' reformers -Nikkei

HONG KONG RISK

China Says Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong Is Void On the Hong Kong handover 20th anniversary, China’s Foreign Ministry says the document is no longer legally binding. -The Diplomat

Carrie Lam is in office, but she has no power -Taipei Times

Liaoning visits Hong Kong to boost patriotism The pride of China's navy has sailed into Hong Kong as part of celebrations to mark the 20th anniversary of the city's return to China, a maiden visit aimed at boosting patriotism among Hong Kongers. -The Straits Times

JAPAN RISK

Japan PM to reshuffle Cabinet in early August but retain key members -Nikkei

South Korea, Japan unlikely to let ‘comfort women’ row undermine security ties With the leaders of Japan and South Korea at odds over a 2015 agreement to resolve the “comfort women” issue but agreeing to build “future-oriented” relations, they are likely to use a dual-track approach to ensure the rift does not undermine cooperation in dealing with North Korea. -The Japan Times

Yuriko Koike: 10 things about the Tokyo governor who just trumped Japanese PM Shinzo Abe Forces supporting Koike captured a total of 79 seats out of the 127 seats up for grabs in the election, with Koike's Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First party) winning 49 seats, and its major ally in the metropolitan assembly the Komeito party securing 23 seats. Abe's ruling LDP, meanwhile, won only 23 seats, its lowest-ever level in a Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, according to local media. -The Straits Times

With EU Deal, Japan Sends Powerful Message on Free Trade The Japan-EU deal is a political win for Abe and a repudiation of Trump-style protectionism. -The Diplomat

Trump prods Abe to shrink U.S.-Japan trade imbalance -The Japan Times

TAIWAN RISK

Presidential Office urges protesters to be more ‘rational’ The Presidential Office yesterday urged protesters to express their opinions rationally in the wake of increasingly violent demonstrations against President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), after the legislature passed bills to cut the retirement benefits of civil servants and public-school teachers. -Taipei Times

US port calls might unsettle China -Taipei Times

MONGOLIA RISK

Former Martial Arts Star Battulga Wins Mongolian Presidential Election The poll was seen as a referendum on the government's economic recovery plans and the role of southern neighbor China in the landlocked but resource-rich country known as the birthplace of Mongol emperor Genghis Khan. -NYT

Mongolia Just Chose a New President. What Now? Mongolia is set for 3 years of cohabitation between President Battulga and an MPP parliament. -The Diplomat

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

In post-Lee Kuan Yew era, can Singapore still walk tall on global stage? Former envoy sparks anger comparing Lion City to Qatar in what some see as a thinly veiled attack on Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong -SCMP

Duterte's popularity on the line in southern Philippine conflict Drawn-out conflict and slow rehabilitation would hurt implementation of policy agenda -Nikkei

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Sanctions are fine, but what about the Chinese who depend on trade with North Korea? With Beijing under growing international pressure to impose tougher sanctions on Pyongyang, Chinese traders on the border fear for their future -SCMP

China's COSCO Shipping offers $6.3 billion for Orient Overseas Ltd -Reuters

PODCAST OF THE WEEK>> Asian Airlines in Crisis & Rise of China Aviation with Paul Papadimitriou a conversation to discuss the crisis of Asian airlines and the rise of China aviation. We discussed why the top Asian airlines such as Cathay Pacific & Singapore Airlines are facing challenges with their models disrupted by new upstart airlines, and the major business opportunities arising from China in the aviation space. -Analyse Asia

Samsung, Seeking to Move Past Scandals, Forecasts Record Profit One of the conglomerate’s companies, Samsung Electronics, said on Friday that it expected to post record earnings in the second quarter, driven by a booming semiconductor business and positive reviews of its latest mobile phone. The earnings are expected to hit $12 billion, which would surpass analysts’ estimates for Apple’s profit for the same period. -NYT

Foxconn seeks to raise its own profile after working for others The Taiwanese company embarks on an acquisition strategy to boost profits -Nikkei

A complete teardown of Amazon’s business model, and how it’ll enter Southeast Asia -Tech-in-Asia

GLOBAL MACRO

China has no intention of devaluing its currency, regulator says Despite weakening significantly against the US dollar last year, the yuan has rebounded strongly in 2017 -SCMP

Japan ploughs its own furrow as end of cheap money fast approaches The Bank of Japan was the odd man out at last week’s gathering of central bankers in Portugal, and with good reason -SCMP

Nickel prices in free fall following issuance of additional export permit Global nickel prices have been in free fall over the past few days following the issuance of another export permit by the Indonesian government for local company PT Ceria Nugraha Indotama (CNI). -Jakarta Post