Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

The Global Age of Complexity Every century, it seems, has its “age.” The Renaissance, from a philosophical perspective, has been called the Age of Adventure. The seventeenth-century Age of Reason was followed by the Age of Enlightenment. The nineteenth and twentieth centuries were ages of ideology and analysis, respectively. As for the twenty-first century, I would argue that it is the Age of Complexity. -Project Syndicate

These Five Charts Show the Seismic Shifts Happening in Global Energy -Bloomberg 

EUROPE RISK

RIGHT HAND >> Brexit: EU 'open' to change of heart, say France and Germany French President Emmanuel Macron says the possibility of the UK remaining in the European Union is an option until Brexit negotiations have concluded. -BBC

LEFT HAND >> Germany looks to reap Brexit dividend as EU agencies leave London Germany is seeking to make the most of Brexit by mopping up the European Medicines Agency and the European Banking Authority. The two London-based agencies are set for relocation after the split.  -DW

How Macron Keeps Winning Emmanuel Macron’s one-man revolution in French and European politics continued this weekend, as he will soon be able to add a huge parliamentary majority to his cause, if the results from the first round of the French parliamentary election hold. Such an outcome appears to be very likely. -Project Syndicate

UK ELECTION RESULTS >> -BBC

Facing competing Brexit demands, PM May nears deal with Northern Irish 'kingmakers' British Prime Minister Theresa May neared a deal with a Northern Irish Protestant party to save her premiership on Tuesday and confirmed Brexit talks would begin next week, amid growing calls for her to soften her approach to leaving the European Union. -Reuters

Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star suffer local election beating -Reuters

RUSSIA RISK

WATCH >> THE PUTIN INTERVIEWS

In Russia, state TV and the Internet tell a tale of two protests Some of the biggest anti-Kremlin protests in years swept across Russia on Monday with over 1,000 people detained by the police ahead of a presidential election next year. But anyone relying on state TV would have concluded they were a non-event. -Reuters

On a Tiny Norwegian Island, America Keeps an Eye on Russia -NYT

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Turkey's Erdogan calls Qatar embargo 'un-Islamic' Turkey's president has likened several Arab states' efforts to isolate Qatar to imposing the death penalty. Qatar is one of Ankara's main regional allies and is seeking a diplomatic route out of the Gulf crisis. -DW

Qatar’s Wait-And-See Strategy -Project Syndicate

Economists' View of Qatar Cutoff Is a Little Scary Economic models have not taken over the study of international relations, but periodically it is worth checking in to see what they say. And right now there is a big red light flashing: the trade and border shutdowns that Saudi Arabia and six other countries have directed at Qatar, a highly vulnerable nation that imports most of its food. -Bloomberg

Raising Tensions, Iranians Again Link Saudis to Terror Attacks in Tehran -NYT

Donald Trump administration under fire over Afghanistan strategy as Taliban surge Pentagon chief Jim Mattis has asked for more troops as the conflict in Afghanistan enters a new phase. Senators fired back that they have yet to receive a coherent strategy from the Trump administration. -DW

AFRICA RISK

France seeks UN backing to fight jihadists in West Africa -France24

Opinion: Profit over aid - Merkel’s plan for Africa With new reform partnerships, Germany wants to help Africa move forward. But the German G20 initiative is loaded with excessive expectations, says Claus Stäcker. -DW 

A Better Investment Framework for Africa -Project Syndicate

GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Europe’s DP chiefs fire warning shots ahead of first EU-US Privacy Shield review -TechCrunch

New EU car emissions tests slammed as 'paper tiger' EU industry ministers have moved to crack down on VW-style emissions cheating, giving Brussels more powers to monitor car approvals. But critics say the draft reform has been watered down on pressure from the car lobby. -DW

UK and France to jointly pressure tech firms over extremist content -TechCrunch

WhatsApp: the go-to messaging tool for parliamentary plotting Boris Johnson’s ‘leaked’ show of support for the prime minister highlights how the app has become the medium of choice in Westminster -The Guardian

Chill out — Russia’s Skolkovo project attempts a re-boot with a new venture fund -TechCrunch

GLOBAL MACRO

UK inflation rate at near four-year high -BBC

London could lose EU euro clearing role The European Union has revealed a draft law to give it the power to move the lucrative euro clearing business out of London and keep it in the EU after Britain leaves the Union in 2019 -BBC

The Market Math Behind the Saudi-Russia Romance If it feels like Russia is just cropping up all over the place these days, you are no doubt focused on oil. No? Well, anyway, Russia's role in the global oil market has become even more important than usual. And BP's latest annual review of energy statistics, released on Tuesday, helps show why. -Bloomberg Gadfly