Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Global Economic Prospects - A Fragile Recovery -A World Bank Group Flagship Report

Costs of bank cyber thefts hit SWIFT profit last year Dealing with cyber hacks on banks ate into profit last year at the SWIFT messaging system, which financial institutions use to move trillions of dollars each day. -Reuters

CHINA RISK

China says it is vigilant as two U.S. bombers fly over South China Sea China said on Friday it was monitoring U.S. military activities in the South China Sea, after two U.S. bombers conducted training flights over the disputed waters. -Reuters

PODCAST OF THE WEEK>> The U.S., China, and the Future of the Korean Peninsula | AshCast -Harvard University

How to Reform China’s SOEs The IMF has clear guidelines for SOE reform, but results will be a long time coming. -The Diplomat

JAPAN RISK

Arms show offers Japan venue to build military ties in Southeast Asia Defense firms were to put their wares on display Monday at Japan’s only dedicated arms show, a site for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government to promote industrial military ties that will bolster the country’s influence in Southeast Asia. -The Japan Times

Abenomics enters fifth year without clear results Despite high approval and control over Diet, Abe slow to tackle crucial reforms -Nikkei

Abdication should be new beginning for emperor and Japan Symbolic monarch's role should be re-examined in a changing society -Nikkei

KOREAS RISK

North Korea Says It's 'Not Far Away' From Test-Firing an ICBM -Bloomberg

Why a rising Moon bodes well for South Korea’s relations with China A liberal president in Seoul who has learnt to say no to America and seeks a new approach to North Korea will be music to Beijing’s ears, even if Moon Jae-in cannot reverse the deployment of US anti-missile system THAAD -SMCP

South Korean president names five new ministers -Nikkei

TAIWAN RISK

President Tsai urges continued U.S. defense assistance to Taiwan During a meeting with a delegation from a U.S. think tank, Tsai noted that the TRA has been in place for 38 years and has provided a legal framework for the development of relations between Taiwan and the U.S. -Focus Taiwan

MONGOLIA RISK

JUNE 26th - ELECTION WATCH>> The Race for Mongolia's Presidency Begins A horse-breeder, a judoka and a feng shui practitioner walk into a Mongolian polling station… -The Diplomat

Mongolia Presidential Candidate Evokes Trump, Challenges IMF One of Mongolia’s top presidential candidates is seeking to reinstate a banking measure that almost derailed the country’s $434 million bailout last month as part of a populist-tinged campaign. -Bloomberg

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

U.S. sends bombers on 10-hour mission to South China Sea from Guam Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers flew a 10-hour mission Thursday from Guam through the disputed South China Sea in an operation with a Navy guided-missile destroyer, the U.S. military said. -The Japan Times

How Nationalism Undermines ASEAN Integration The problem continues to haunt the grouping fifty years on. -The Diplomat

Separatist groups in region pose 'clear and present' danger to Singapore: PM Lee -The Straits Times

Nothing personal: a lesson for Trump in Vietnamese politics Personality counts for little in Hanoi’s political circles – if the US president shows he is a friend who values and respects the nation, he may get an enthusiastic welcome when he visits in November -SCMP

PM: New geopolitical challenges causing Malaysia to sit up Malaysia is monitoring closely the geopolitical developments taking place in the world so that decisions and measures taken are in accordance with the country’s interests, Prime Minister Najib Razak said today -FMT

Dissecting the Cambodian Election -TheNewsLens

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

HR software developer Workday eyes expanded presence in Asia Plans include opening Seoul, Bangkok offices, doubling Asia staff -Nikkei

Apple Customer Data in China Was Sold Illegally, Police Say -NYT

Great Wall's Rearview Mirror It could be time to hit the reset button on Hong Kong's most-shorted stock. Investors have piled in to bet against Great Wall Motor Co., with short interest making up 15 percent of the company's shares, even as they cheer other Chinese carmakers benefiting from a surge in vehicle ownership and auto financing. -Bloomberg Gadfly

Japan carmakers benefit as South Korean auto sales plunge in China: report Sales in China of Japanese cars rose sharply over the three months through May as sales of Korean cars plummeted, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported Sunday, citing the diplomatic row over installation of a U.S. anti-missile system in the country as a major cause. -The Japan Times

Airbnb finally becomes legit in Japan New law removes 'gray zone' uncertainties from home sharing The enactment of the minpaku home-sharing law in the Diet's upper house Friday removes the regulatory uncertainties surrounding renting private dwellings as temporary accommodations, possibly opening the door for dramatic growth of a new industry in Japan. -Nikkei

Osaka ‘minpaku’ services see surge in complaints amid tourism boom -The Japan Times

Taiwan will continue communication with U.S. on pork issue: MOFA The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said Friday that Taiwan will continue to communicate with the United States on the controversial issue of U.S. pork imports and to explain factors such as food preferences and concerns in the local population. -Focus Taiwan

Air Canada's flight relaunch to boost Taiwan-Canada relationship The air link has come at a perfect time as inbound and outbound tourist travel between Taiwan and Canada has continued to surge over the years. -Taiwan News

Go-jek wants to kill your wallet, says it’s beating Uber and Grab in Indonesia The 32-year-old Harvard graduate spoke about removing cash entirely, especially that which is needed for daily transactions such as transport, food, moving stuff, utilities, and bills, among others. “Our goal is to cover the gamut of transactions so you won’t be required to transact outside your smartphone,” he said. -Deal Street Asia

Unilever Indonesia to Invest $500 Million in Production Expansion -Indonesia Investments

Thailand to Target Facebook Profits Over Illegal Content Thai regulators plan to impose financial penalties on Facebook Inc. and other companies with video-sharing platforms if they fail to swiftly remove what they deem to be illegal content. -Bloomberg

GLOBAL MACRO

China’s New Bridges: Rising High, but Buried in Debt China has built hundreds of dazzling new bridges, including the longest and highest, but many have fostered debt and corruption. -NYT

China's Yancoal gets regulatory approval for $2.45 billion Rio Tinto deal China's Yancoal has gained Chinese regulatory approval for its $2.45 billion purchase of Rio Tinto's Australian unit Coal & Allied Industries Ltd, the company said in a stock exchange filing on Sunday which also acknowledged Glencore's counterbid for the assets on Friday. -Reuters

PRECIOUS-Gold slips; Palladium surges 7 pct to highest in 16 years -Reuters