Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

INTO THE ECHO CHAMBER>> A False Spring at the Spring Meetings? Because these officials attend multiple events over the course of the week, an echo chamber develops, from which a general perception of the state of the global economy emerges. Policymaking around the world is then influenced by that perception. -Project Syndicate

EUROPE RISK

DIMANCHE >> Opinion Lab

Emmaeul Macron = %60

Marine Le Pen = %40

How Le Pen could win She needs to reassure conservatives and discourage leftists from voting. -Politico.eu

BRUSSELS = BUREAUCRACY>> Brexit puts security cooperation at risk Commission to London on Europol: You can’t blackmail us. -Politico.eu

BLOODY RIGHT >> Brexit: Theresa May says she'll be 'bloody difficult' to Juncker -BBC

Theresa May swipes Brussels and hits Labour It’s a textbook example of how the Conservatives plan to see off potential crises during the June 8 general election campaign. -Politico.eu

Italy's Renzi regains party leadership with big primary win -Reuters (video)

Italy Is Europe's Next Big Problem Across the Alps, an economic and political storm is brewing -- and there's no sign anyone can stop it. -BloombergView

EU Schengen controls to be lifted by November Brussels says controls put in place because of the migrant crisis should be phased out by the end of the year. Austria, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and non-EU Norway introduced the ID checks in 2015. -DW

RUSSIA RISK

Trump, Putin discuss Syria ceasefire in first talks since U.S. air strikes -Reuters

Merkel: EU will lift Russia sanctions when Minsk accords implemented All parties must work toward ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, German chancellor says after talks with Putin. -Politico.eu

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad: Propped up by Tehran and Moscow Iran and Russia will set the agenda at the Astana talks as the president's "protecting powers" have effectively taken control of government, writes DW's Kersten Knipp. The US is to send a representative to the talks. -DW

Champion of Iran Reforms Backs Rouhani Before Presidential Election -Bloomberg

Dialogue With Iran Is Impossible, Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Says Saudi Arabia’s powerful deputy crown prince slammed the door Tuesday on the prospect of dialogue with Iran, the kingdom’s regional rival, accusing it of following an “extremist ideology” and seeking to take over the Muslim world. -NYT

Hamas softens stance on Israel in new policy document -France24

AFRICA RISK

ELECTION WATCH>> Algerian voters go to the polls on 4 May to elect a new parliament amid uncertainty over the health of the country's ailing president, dwindling oil revenues, and instability on the borders with neighbouring countries. -BBC

Is China the World’s New Colonial Power? The rising superpower has built up enormous holdings in poor, resource-rich African countries — but its business partners there aren’t always thrilled. -NYT

Ethiopia: China Grants 8 Mln. USD to Mitigate Drought Impact in Ethiopia -AllAfrica

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

SMART>> E.U. Sets Aside Calls to End Visa-Free Travel for Americans -NYT

Europe’s Surprising Tech Success In fact, according to a new report by the London venture capital firm Atomico, European startups are now taking the lead in artificial intelligence, building new tech hubs, and drawing investment from traditional industrial stalwarts.

REPORT HERE>> Three major trends:

1.      Deep tech is thriving and diversifying.

2.      New tech hubs are emerging

3.      Traditional industries are awakening to tech.

JPMorgan to Move Hundreds of Staff to Three EU Offices on Brexit -Bloomberg

German companies want a soft Brexit German companies are already noticing a decline in sales to Britain. They’re pinning their hopes on a soft Brexit that takes the needs of business into account. -DW

China's HNA raises Deutsche Bank stake to nearly 10 pct-source -Reuters

Alitalia slides into administration -BBC

Tough times for doing business in Russia The event attracted professionals from all over the world and presented an opportunity to assess bilateral business ties. -DW (video)

BP Starts to Steer Away From the Financial Rocks -BloombergGadfly

HIGHER DIESEL STANDARDS COMING>>Africa rejects Europe's 'dirty diesel' Ghana and Nigeria - Stricter limits on the sulfur content of diesel will come into force on July 1.-DW

GLOBAL MACRO

Euro-Area Recovery Keeps Pace as ECB Stimulus Decision Nears -Bloomberg

Elusive debt fix for Greece Creditors still haven’t figured out how to make Athens’ liabilities affordable. -Politico.eu

CAPITAL CONTROLS>> Le Pen says euro a deadweight, capital controls an option if she wins power -Reuters

France presidential candidate Le Pen pledges to replace euro in two years Far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has renewed her vow to replace the euro with the French Franc. -DW