Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

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GLOBAL RISK

Taking Eurozone Growth Seriously When it comes to the eurozone, embracing the idea that economic growth may be about to take off might be enough, at least until recently, to earn one a referral to a mental-health specialist. But, … on the off-chance that this crackpot notion were true, there would be some serious money to be made in today’s generously valued markets. -Project Syndicate

EUROPE RISK

The 40 MEPs Who Matter in 2017 Here’s who you need to know in the European Parliament -Politico

“Come and Get Them”: Prying Open the Black Box of Europe’s Power Politics -War on the Rocks

The End of the Left/Right Divide? Hence the political terms “left” and “right.” Many commentators on the French presidential election have pointed out that these categories no longer fit contemporary politics in France – or, indeed, anywhere else. Emmanuel Macron prides himself on being neither right nor left. -Project Syndicate

EU steps up pressure on Poland over rule of law European Union countries urged Poland's nationalist-minded government on Tuesday to address concerns that it is undermining democratic checks and balances, in a dispute that has highlighted growing tensions between western and eastern Europe. -Reuters

Emmanuel Macron’s EU honeymoon: Nice while it lasted France’s 39-year-old president-elect has big ideas — and the push-back has already started. -Politico

EU countries to decide on Singapore trade deal An EU-Singapore free trade deal cannot take effect fully unless parliaments in all 28 member states approve it, the EU's top court has decided. -BBC

EU’s top court: Trade deals must be ratified at national level Ruling sets precedent for similar agreements Brussels aims to conclude with Japan, Mexico, Australia — and UK. -Politico

RUSSIA RISK

Putin is not the geopolitical genius the world makes him out to be As for Putin, he has been forced to learn a lesson that should be clear from history — invading countries is not a good way to make friends. A Ukraine that has always been somewhat fractured is now united in resisting Russia. -Washington Post

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Turkey's Erdogan calls arming of Kurdish YPG 'unacceptable' in meeting with Trump Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spoken out against the US proposal to arm Kurdish fighters in Syria. His comments came during a brief press conference in the White House. -DW

ELECTION WATCH>> Iran presidential election: Five things to know -BBC

1. It matters to the outside world

2. Iran is a mixture of political systems

3. The polls will be free and fair - within limits

4. No female presidents - but women are politically active

5. Voters care about ordinary issues

Iran’s Election: Where the Candidates Stand Iran’s May 19 election is being fought as a referendum on the policies of President Hassan Rouhani, the moderate cleric who championed integrating Iran with the global economy and curbed his nation’s nuclear work in exchange for relief from sanctions. -Bloomberg

Iran election: Jahangiri withdraws and endorses Rouhani -BBC

Iran changes course of road to Mediterranean coast to avoid US forces New land corridor to move 140 miles south to avoid buildup of US forces assembled in north-east Syria to fight Isis -The Guardian

AFRICA RISK

Ivory Coast Sends Forces to Quash a Violent Military Mutiny -NYT

Sudan President, Charged With Genocide, Invited to Saudi Summit with Trump Sudan’s president, indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes including genocide, has been invited to a summit in Saudi Arabia alongside President Trump -Reuters

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

France fines Facebook over 'targeted advertising' French regulator CNIL has penalized the US social network for failing to protect its users' data, with the fine being relatively modest, but marking a new phase in the spat between Facebook and the EU. -DW

Ethiopian politician Yonatan Tesfaye guilty of terror charge Ethiopian opposition politician Yonatan Tesfaye has been found guilty of encouraging terrorism for comments he made on Facebook. -BBC

Germany's highest court rules IP addresses may be saved in interest of cybersecurity -DW

EU to launch legal case against Italy over Fiat emissions: sources -Reuters

Taking back control? Not unless you eat more fish Brexiteers want out of the Common Fisheries Policy, but they will still need the EU. -Politico.eu

Wider Laptops Ban Would Cost Airlines $1 Billion, IATA Head Says The widening of a U.S. ban on carrying electronic devices aboard aircraft to include flights from Europe would cost travelers more than $1 billion, the head of the airline industry’s global lobby group said. -Bloomberg

Absent from America, French cars drive into Iran election Rouhani pushed the French investment to the forefront of his election campaign when he attended a ceremony this month to mark the production launch of the Peugeot 2008, the first product of post-sanctions manufacturing deals with foreign carmakers. -Reuters

US nears $100bn arms deal for Saudi Arabia in time for Trump's visit Senior White House official says it is close to completing a series of deals to boost Saudi defense capabilities, as Trump readies for trip next week -The Guardian

GLOBAL MACRO

Saudi Arabia, Russia push to extend oil output cut until March 2018 -Reuters

How natural gas could be a geopolitical game-changer in the Mideast Deep under the eastern Mediterranean lies the largest natural gas basin ever found on Europe's doorstep. But the gas fields often coincide with disputed borders between rival nations. -France24

Sterling hits one-and-a-half month low against resurgent euro -Reuters