Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Information Warfare Versus Soft Power The concept of soft power was incorporated into Russia’s 2013 Foreign Policy Concept, and in March 2016, Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov stated that responding to such foreign threats “using conventional troops is impossible; they can be counteracted only with the same hybrid methods. -Project Syndicate

DR. DOOM>> Whistling Past the Geopolitical Graveyard The populist backlash against globalization in the West will not be stilled by Macron’s victory, and could still lead to protectionism, trade wars, and sharp restrictions to migration. If the forces of disintegration take hold, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU could eventually lead to a breakup of the EU – Macron or no Macron. -Project Syndicate

EUROPE RISK

5 takeaways from Emmanuel Macron’s win in France What the centrist’s victory in the presidential vote means for France, Europe and the world. -Politico.eu

1. European, ‘globalist’ France wins

2. Transatlantic ‘continuity’

3. Setback for far right, but populism alive and well

4. En Marche toward the third round — the parliamentary elections

5. Reformer or healer?

France: A critical player in a weakened Europe This paper assesses the presidency of François Hollande (2012-2017) and looks at the state of France as a significant actor on the world stage and as a leading member of the European Union and the trans-Atlantic alliance. -Brookings

Juncker vs May: You ain’t seen nothing yet The unwanted consequences of Brexit muscle their way onto the EU’s agenda. -Politico.eu

Germany eyes new North Korea sanctions: government sources Germany will tighten economic sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear program in line with a U.N. resolution passed in November and subsequent EU regulations -Reuters

RUSSIA RISK

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the White House on Wednesday to discuss Syria and a wide range of international issues -Reuters

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Iran's Rouhani lashes rivals with rare criticism of security forces, ruling clerics Iran’s moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, has delivered rare rebukes in recent days to the country’s powerful Shiite clergy and allied security forces, lashing out at rivals and their hard-line backers ahead of his reelection bid next week. -Washington Post

U.S. to arm Syrian Kurds fighting Islamic State, despite Turkey's ire Despite fierce opposition from NATO ally Turkey, U.S. President Donald Trump has approved supplying arms to Kurdish YPG fighters to support an operation to retake the Syrian city of Raqqa from Islamic State, U.S. officials said on Tuesday. -Reuters

AFRICA RISK

US cuts Kenya health aid money over corruption allegations -BBC

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

The Eurocrat Who Makes Corporate America Tremble Apple. Google. Amazon. EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager has challenged them all. -Bloomberg

“If you want to do business in Europe, you play by the European rule book”

Silicon Valley tech lobbyists swarm Brussels Commission creates feeding frenzy for consultants. -Politico.eu

French Businesses Hope Macron’s Victory Will Ignite an Economic Revival -NYT

“The best case is it takes some time, but he manages to implement at least half of what’s needed to stop decreasing competitiveness and change the trajectory of France”

Facebook Aims to Tackle Fake News Ahead of U.K. Election Despite the Silicon Valley giant’s increased efforts to clamp down on how misinformation is spread, policy makers, journalists and others in Europe remain skeptical about the ability of Facebook and other technology companies to fight such digital falsities. -NYT

Italian village offers €2,000 gifts to boost dwindling population -Guardian

#tempting

Russia blocks China’s social media app WeChat Developer Tencent Technologies says aware of move and communicating with authorities -SCMP

Tanzanian bank FBME shut down over US terror funding charges -BBC

GLOBAL MACRO

ECB Says Slow-Declining Labor-Market Slack Poses Wage Hurdle -Bloomberg

Time to Run With the Bulls in Europe Emmanuel Macron's election as French president removes the risk that one of the founding members of the European Union might seek to extricate itself from the euro. That in turn should be the signal for equity investors to take advantage of a less febrile political environment and buy European stocks. -Bloomberg Gadfly

Saudi to cut June oil supply to Asia as local demand rises: source Saudi Aramco will reduce oil supplies to Asia by about 7 million barrels in June … as the oil giant cuts output as part of global supply pact and trims exports to meet rising domestic demand for power during hot summer months. -Reuters