Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Tillerson Goes to Asia In South Korea, with the required trip to the demilitarized zone on his mind, Tillerson intoned that President Barack Obama’s policy of “strategic patience” with the North was over. He concluded with a favorite statement of American policymakers when there seems no obvious way forward: “all options are on the table,” he said, implying that military action should also be considered. -Project Syndicate

CHINA RISK

China downplays tensions with U.S. as Xi prepares to meet Trump Beijing sought to play down tensions with the United States and put on a positive face on Friday as the U.S. administration slammed China on a range of business issues ahead of President Xi Jinping's first meeting with President Donald Trump. -Reuters

CHINA’s KISSINGER??? >> China Learns How to Get Trump’s Ear: Through Jared Kushner -NYT

DAVID SHAMBAUGH Q&A >> Will Xi Jinping run circles around Donald Trump? -The Straits Times

“I am not sure it is strictly mature for the Americans to have a summit at this stage. It is not certain they have a global policy; certainly they don't have an Asia policy, much less a China policy.”

China says U.S. trade orders should respect international rules -Reuters

China Uighurs: Xinjiang ban on long beards and veils The measures include prohibiting "abnormally" long beards, the wearing of veils in public places and refusing to watch state television. -BBC

HONG KONG RISK

Why would Beijing trust Carrie Lam but not John Tsang? Despite backing former chief secretary in Hong Kong leadership race, central government has not shut the door on popular ex-financial secretary -SCMP

JAPAN RISK

Japan must be capable of striking enemy bases, LDP panel says Japan must gain the military capability to strike enemy bases in light of North Korea's continued nuclear and missile development, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's security research commission told Prime Minister Shinzo Abe -Nikkei

NEW KID ON THE BLOCK – HASHIMOTO-SAN >> Japan Chair Forum: Toru Hashimoto The Future of the U.S.-Japan Alliance -CSIS (video)

Japan must bolster itself as a proactive actor on world stage -Indian Express

Trump orders review of U.S. trade deficits with all nations, including Japan -The Japan Times

Japan’s foreign residents offer up insights in unprecedented survey on discrimination -The Japan Times

KOREAS RISK

Trump: 'Totally' possible for U.S. to address North Korea threat alone -FT

Treasury Sanctions Agents Linked to North Korea’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Financial Networks -US Treasury

“These sanctions underscore this Administration’s commitment to countering the threat to the United States, to our allies, and to stability on the Korean peninsula and in the wider Asia Pacific region … ” -Mnuchin

Making China Pay on North Korea Why Beijing's Coal Ban Isn't Enough -Foreign Affairs

Why China’s shadow boycott of South Korea is self-defeating If Beijing keeps breaking free-trade rules to make its foreign-policy points against rival nations, it will hurt domestic markets and lose international stature -SCMP

TAIWAN RISK

‘One country, two systems’ an empty pledge The unfair election system in Hong Kong should be a reminder to Taiwanese to ensure freedom for future generations, DPP Legislator Wu Ping-jui said -Taipei Times

Taiwan’s Search for Security Partners: Looking Beyond Washington The rationale for Taipei to look beyond Washington to the expertise and assistance of other partners and allies is simple. Taiwan’s needs cannot be met by reliance on Washington alone; additional relationships are necessary to ensure the island has political, economic, and security ties to sustain its future. -Jamestown Foundation

Unpacking Tsai Ing-wen’s New Southbound Policy Can Taiwan’s latest attempt to avoid economic dependence on China succeed? -The Diplomat

Xi and Trump tipped to play down Taiwan at Florida summit Experts anticipate trade and North Korea to dominate meeting, overriding status of Taiwan -SCMP

Taiwan targeted by Trump executive order Taiwan on list of 16 countries facing trade practices investigation -Taiwan News

Trump Should Follow Reagan's Lead on Taiwan Policy Trump should use the Mar-a-Lago summit to issue assurances for Taiwan. -The National Interest

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

Vietnam and Taiwan Spar over South China Sea Taiwan has been engaging in military drills this week around Taiping Island, its major foothold in the South China Sea—and Vietnam is having none of it. -The American Interest

Beijing, Manila facing new maritime dispute Chinese survey mission pushes Philippines to also launch study The territorial dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea could flare up again after Chinese ships were found surveying a resource-rich area located within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. -Nikkei

The 'Chinazation' of Cambodia China's deepening economic presence is bringing progress -- but at what cost? -Nikkei

Suu Kyi’s party wins string of seats in by-elections but rejected by Myanmar’s minorities The voting to fill 19 seats in the national and regional parliaments was seen as a test of the democracy icon’s popularity after a bumpy first year in office -SCMP

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Jack Ma's Latest U.S. Expansion Plan Threatened by Trump Agenda -Bloomberg

Tesla Needs Help in China That might seem surprising for a company that's nearly synonymous with the future. But China, the world's largest car market, isn't about to cede its auto industry to foreign entrepreneurs. -Bloomberg View

The New York Times vs. the ‘Great Firewall’ of China In this article, Craig S. Smith, a former Times Shanghai bureau chief and China managing director who is now a staff writer-at-large, reflects on the ups and downs of delivering New York Times content to the Chinese world. -NYT

HK$350 million proposed for struggling Hong Kong Disneyland by US parent company Lawmakers across the political spectrum are still wary as funding vote for park expansion nears -SCMP

Apple, Amazon, Google join bidding for Toshiba chip unit: media -Reuters

New rules on ‘minpaku’ lodging The government has proposed legislation setting rules on the practice of renting out private lodging (minpaku) to tourists. The measure is designed to respond to a sharp increase in the number of inbound tourists by accommodating them in private residences, while preventing potential troubles involving lodgers, owners and neighbors. -The Japan Times

Park scandal forcing rethink of cozy public-private ties The conglomerates known as chaebol are taking a second look at their historically close relationship with the South Korean government as prosecutors home in on arrested ex-President Park Geun-hye's ties to the Samsung group. -Nikkei

An Investor’s Guide: How to Minimize Risk in Indonesia -Indonesia Expat

REGULATIONS WATCH >> Regulating the Ride-Hailing Apps Revolution in Indonesia On Saturday, 01 April, 2017, the new regulations for ride-hailing apps in Indonesia came into effect, designed to protect consumers of these apps and support traditional transportation services such as taxi operators, minivans, buses and motorcycle taxis. -Indonesia Investments

GLOBAL MACRO

No Big Bang: MSCI Slashes Its Proposal For China A-Shares -Frontera News

JBIC, Japanese mega-banks to lend $1 billion for Kuwait oil refinery renovation project -The Japan Times

Two Mega International ETFs debut on TWSE The two ETFs track two indices compiled and maintained by TWSE fully owned subsidiary Taiwan Index Plus Corp (TIP, 台灣指數) and are comprised of 30 heavyweights on the local market, the TWSE said. -Taipei Times

U.S. Nuclear Setback Is a Boon to Russia, China The bankruptcy of Westinghouse Electric Co., the Pittsburgh-based nuclear power company, is a geopolitical setback for the U.S. It halts a long-standing U.S. effort to get Eastern European countries to buy U.S. rather than Russian fuel, and leaves state-controlled Russian and Chinese companies the dominant suppliers in the huge global market for nuclear technology. -Bloomberg View