Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

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GLOBAL RISK

Reconciling the IMF's 3 Growth Messages Now that it has, any analysis needs to be careful not to underestimate the extent to which the already protracted period of low and insufficiently inclusive growth has planted the seeds -- economic, financial, institutional, political and social -- of its own instability and eventual demise. -BloombergView      

U.S. RISK

FRIDGE MATERIAL??>> Donald Trump gets his 100-day report card voters grade the president's performance in 10 different policy areas. -Politico

“No administration has accomplished more in the first 90 days — that includes on military, on the border, on trade, on regulation, on law enforcement — we love our law enforcement — and on government reform” -President Trump

PROCESS MATTERS>> The House of Representatives Is a Mess Process may seem boring to many, and it certainly is easy to lampoon from the campaign trail. It also matters a lot within Congress if you want policy to come out right. -BloombergView  

Speaker Ryan’s Remarks at Policy Exchange in London -Hon. Paul Ryan

Trump to investigate imports of foreign-made steel: report The memo Trump will sign at the White House cites a law allowing the president to impose restrictions on imports for national security reasons, the report said. -The Hill

TRADE LAW GEEKS READ >> “Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Industrial Fasteners, Machine Tools and Beyond” -Maryland Journal of International Law

Trump: Commerce probe into steel imports has nothing to do with China -Politico

PODCAST OF THE WEEK >> Foreign Investment and National Security: Does CFIUS Need Expanded Powers? -CSIS (video)

Free Trade With South Korea Is Working -BloombergView

The Foreign Policy Establishment or Donald Trump: Which Better Reflects American Opinion? the 2016 Chicago Council public opinion survey, also conducted before the election, showed that rather than aligning with the foreign policy views of President Trump, the general public was more attuned to the broad outlines of foreign policy positions promoted by the foreign policy opinion leaders, or “the Foreign Policy Establishment.” -Chicago Council Survey

“the Foreign Policy Establishment” conducts a survey; agrees with itself… 

AMERICAS

Trump: Dairy trade dispute with Canada a ‘disgrace’ caused by NAFTA -The Hill

Trudeau defends Canada's dairy system against Trump protectionist charge Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Thursday brushed off an attack by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canada's system of dairy protections, saying every nation defended its agricultural industries. -Reuters

Trump and Cuba should start dialogue: Mississippi governor says -Reuters

"Sometimes people have a narrative of Mississippi as if it's 1960s, and it's not, and it's not the 1960s in Cuba"

ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER PROTEST >> Venezuelan opposition protests again against Maduro Government officials dismiss the protests, characterized by street barricades and clashes with security forces, as violent and lawless efforts to overthrow Maduro's leftist government with the backing of ideological adversaries in Washington. -Reuters

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT +

OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Google is seeing more requests for user data worldwide, but it’s responding to fewer Note: The company also has more users than before. -Recode  

Western Digital, Japan Investors in Toshiba Unit Sale Talks -Bloomberg

Trump’s billionaire adviser stands to gain from policies he helped shape Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman has extensive holdings in China and influence on Trump’s policies there -Politico

Last stand: Nebraska farmers could derail Keystone XL pipeline -Reuters

Canada is North America’s up-and-coming startup center -Tech Crunch

EXPROPRIATION WATCH >> U.S. reviewing Venezuela's seizure of GM assets GM said on Wednesday that Venezuelan authorities had illegally seized its plant in the industrial hub of Valencia. -Reuters

Brazil port M&A frenzy proves not cheap for MSC, Dubai World Dubai Ports World Co and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co SA are seizing on Brazil's three-year-long recession and rising debt levels among local port operators to bid for marine terminals in one of the world's top commodity exporters. But their plan will not come cheap. -Reuters

Mexico's Telecommunications Industry's Bull Run Continues -Yahoo Finance

GLOBAL MACRO

Long, Long Bonds and Even Longer Odds The Treasury Department released a questionnaire to primary dealers on Friday, asking for detailed responses about their appetite for 40, 50 or 100-year bonds -BloombergGadfly

Trump’s shockingly traditional approach to currency policy Despite his campaign promises, Trump has learned that the “currency manipulator” label is a useful bargaining chip—just like president's before him. -Politico

How Geopolitical Risks Affect Gold and the Dollar -Market Realist

RISK FATIGUE>> Default Assumption Of Geopolitical Risk Dragging Oil Prices Up Is A Fallacy One The other reason, less deliberated reason, was that the market had simply developed risk fatigue. -Forbes

YET>> Geopolitics is becoming the main driver of global oil prices -Asia Times