Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Why the global arms trade is booming Global instability and a push from exporters have smaller countries stocking up -The Economist

The Geopolitics of Environmental Challenges Much of the world seems to be on edge. But one issue – one might say the most significant of them all – is being ignored or pushed aside: the environment. -Project Syndicate

EUROPE RISK

EU leaders embrace multi-speed Europe amid tensions France, Germany, Italy and Spain have backed the idea of a multi-speed EU, as the 28-nation bloc prepares to mark 60 years since its founding treaty. -BBC

Europe's Populists Aren't the Threat You Think -Bloomberg View

Europe's future: Small steps rather than big dreams? How do you celebrate in a time of acute anxiety, how do you party in the midst of a family divorce and how do you mark an anniversary when allies predict your demise? -BBC

UK government loses House of Lords vote on Brexit Bill House of Lords reject prime minister May’s ‘take it or leave it’ vote on Brexit deal by 366 to 268. -Politico.eu

Germany’s Misunderstood Trade Surplus Now that Germany’s current-account surplus has reached a record €270 billion ($285 billion), or close to 8.7% of GDP, the ongoing debate about its economic model has intensified. Eurozone politicians and Donald Trump’s administration in the United States are each blaming the other for the economic imbalance; and all are blaming the euro. -Project Syndicate

What Europe can learn from Italy The Italian case proves that economic policies, whereby the rich subsidize the poor, won’t fix Europe’s problems. -Politico.eu

RUSSIA RISK

HISTORY MATTERS >> The February Revolution and Kerensky’s Missed Opportunity The February Revolution is one of history’s great “What if” moments. If this revolution — which actually took place in early March 1917 according to the West’s Gregorian calendar (Russia adopted that calendar only later) — had succeeded in producing a constitutional democracy in place of the czarist empire as its leaders hoped, the world would be a very different place. -NYT

Russia, China veto new UN sanctions on Syria for chemical weapon use -France24

AFRICA RISK

African bankers scrutinize German minister's 'Marshall Plan' German Development Minister Gerd Müller has been canvassing support for his 'Marshall Plan with Africa' at the African Development Bank in Ivory Coast. Some bankers thought his discussion paper lacked detail. -DW

Who’s running Nigeria? The president has been ill for six weeks, but the country still needs governing -The Economist

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

RECIPROCITY >> Come June, You May Need a Visa to Travel to Europe Although no changes to visa policies have been made yet, the European Parliament said Thursday that U.S. travelers should be forced to apply—and pay—for visas to travel in Europe after the United States failed to renew a special relationship that did not require visas for travelers from both sides heading to or from the EU. -AFAR

YEAH BABY >> European Banks Start to Get Their Mojo Back Banks in the euro zone have enjoyed a 20 percent jump in their share prices so far this year, and are up more than 50 percent from the lows reached last July. -Bloomberg

German court rejects injunction against Facebook over Syrian refugee selfie Facebook does not have to actively seek and delete defamatory posts linked to Anas Modamani, a court has ruled. The Syrian filed a case after his selfie with Angela Merkel was manipulated to link him to Islamist attacks. -DW

Hungarian law targets Soros, foreign-backed NGOs Budapest invokes ‘democratic legitimacy’ and ‘transparency’ to justify planned restrictions on civic society organizations. -Politico.eu

For I.P.O., Saudi Oil Company May Have to Give Up Some of Its Secrets As investment bankers and Saudi officials plan the trading debut, there are more questions than answers: Is the company worth $2 trillion as the Saudis insist, or a small fraction of that, as argued by bankers and international oil experts? Will members of the royal family, with their secret oil payments, allow the kind of transparency that investors are demanding -NYT

GLOBAL MACRO

European Shares Seen Lower As Geopolitical Tensions Rise European markets pared earlier losses to end mixed on Friday after Emmanuel Macron overtook the anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen for the first time in polling ahead of April's first round. -RTT

Euro Pressured by Political Risk Markets simply acknowledged this fresh development as potentially heightening the chances of Marine Le Pen winning the elections which consequently exposed the Euro to further downside losses on Tuesday. -ActionForex

MORE EUROS >> Greece approaches World Bank for cash More ‘financial assistance’ would push the country into further debt. -Politico.eu

Oil output cuts past June must include non-OPEC members: OPEC Secretary General Any decision to extend OPEC production cuts past June would have to include the continued participation by the non-OPEC members of the November accord, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said on Tuesday. -Reuters