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GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

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GLOBAL RISK

Nationalists and Globalists But in the US at least, Trump’s ideology – which has little to do with traditional Republican conservatism – frames the axis of division not as the many versus the few, but as nationalists versus globalists. -Project Syndicate

31st Annual Survey of Corporate Executives Commentary: Political Risk Comes to the United States To last year’s rankings must now be added the challenges presented by major shifts in federal policies and tactics. -Area Development

“Managing these new political risks is now part of the site selection process … careful consideration must also be given to changing tax and tariff policy and the risk that new foreign investments might jeopardize future opportunities to do business with the U.S. government”

POLITICAL RISK >> dismissed by naysayers in yesteryears; today, drives or defeats profit @oxbowadvisory

U.S. RISK

Exclusive: U.S. embassies ordered to identify population groups for tougher visa screening -Reuters

Senate votes to allow ISPs to collect personal data without permission The broadband privacy rules created by the FCC last year and vigorously debated last night are in danger after the Senate voted to repeal them this morning. -Tech Crunch

RELATED >> The FCC is talking about everything but the imminent repeal of its internet privacy rules -Tech Crunch

How America Should Confront China's Unchecked Maritime Bullying The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific recently convened a hearing to discuss the U.S. policy response to China’s maritime push in the South and East China Seas. China has so far suffered no discernable cost for its destabilizing activities in these disputed waters. -The National Interest

U.S. General Urges Nuclear Upgrade as Russia Grows ‘More Aggressive’ -NYT

GOP Takes Up Russia-Aligned Attack On Soros A group of congressional Republicans is teaming up with Russia-backed politicians in Eastern Europe with the shared goal of stopping a common enemy: billionaire financier George Soros. -Politico

Peter Navarro Responds to His Trade Critics (Sort of) White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro’s views have been roundly criticized by economists and policy professionals from across the political and ideological spectra. There seems to be an emerging consensus that the more Navarro speaks and writes, the more he marginalizes his influence within the administration. -Cato

AMERICAS

Rare survey finds Cubans are hungry for stronger U.S. ties -Axios

Of those interviewed:

More than half said they would like to leave the country if given a chance, and 70% of those individuals said they would move to the U.S. if they could.

55% felt better relations with the U.S. would be a good thing, while only 3% felt it would be bad.

95% said having a high level of economic growth was an extremely important goal, but only 30% felt the Cuban economy will improve in the next 3 years.

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT +

OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

How a border tax could divide Boeing and its suppliers U.S. automakers and other manufacturers that rely on imported components also would be affected by the proposals, which would tax imports at a 20 PERCENT RATE, and could split these sectors into winners and losers. -Reuters

U.S. senators set bipartisan bill to tighten sanctions on Iran -Reuters

Trump's early policy moves benefit the industries he knows best — his own Trump has been especially good news for the fields in which he has a personal interest. Trump has been especially good news for the industries in which he has a personal interest: real estate, construction, entertainment, hospitality, gambling and, of course, golf. -Politico

Travellers dumping USA in the age of Donald Trump -The New Daily

U.S. State Department to approve Keystone pipeline permit Friday -Reuters

Canada Tax Tweaks to Hit Oil-and-Gas Drillers and Uber Riders Oil-and-gas drillers, doctors, bus riders and brewers will pay more tax under the 2017 federal budget -- though most Canadians will see little change in their personal or corporate taxes. -Bloomberg

Brazil Meat Scandal Is Called ‘a Punch in the Stomach’ Brazil’s meat industry has taken “a punch in the stomach,” with exports plummeting in the wake of a corruption scandal over safety standards, the country’s agriculture minister said on Wednesday. -NYT

GLOBAL MACRO

America’s Confidence Economy Financial markets seem convinced that the recent surge in business and consumer confidence in the US economy will soon be reflected in “hard” data, such as GDP growth, business investment, consumption, and wages. But economists and policymakers are not so sure. -Project Syndicate

Trumpcare is causing Wall Street to question Trump's whole economic agenda A fierce battle over healthcare reform within the Republican Party is causing Wall Street to sharply reassess its optimism about President Donald Trump's economic policy agenda, as evidenced by the sharpest sell-off in stocks this year. -Business Insider

As Trump targets energy rules, oil companies downplay their impact President Donald Trump’s White House has said his plans to slash environmental regulations will trigger a new energy boom and help the United States drill its way to independence from foreign oil. -Reuters

America’s shale firms don’t give a frack about financial returns Exploration and production companies are poised to go on another investment spree -The Economist