Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

As North Korea’s arsenal grows, experts see heightened risk of ‘miscalculation’ After a week in which Pyongyang successfully lobbed four intermediate-range missiles into the Sea of Japan, U.S. officials are no longer seeing North Korea’s weapons tests as amateurish, attention-grabbing provocations. Instead, they are viewed as evidence of a rapidly growing threat — and one that increasingly defies solution. -The Washington Post

Will North Korea Spell Trouble For These ETFs? North Korea's recent launch of four ballistic missiles has sparked concerns over safety and stability in Korean Peninsula, in particular, Japan and South Korea. -Seeking Alpha

CHINA RISK

Knives out for party power struggle in Beijing Parliamentary session to provide a glimpse into party infighting -Nikkei

Corruption cases in China jumped one-third in 2016 The number of corruption cases heard by Chinese courts jumped by about one-third last year, as the country's top prosecutor vowed on Sunday (March 12) there would be no let up in China's campaign against deep-seated graft. -The Straits Times

U.S. cannot survive without China, Chinese minister says Beijing warns trade war can only harm world's two largest economies -Nikkei

Trump’s Gift to China But, in the longer term, a turn toward protectionism by the United States could well be a blessing in disguise for China. -Project Syndicate

INFORMATIVE >> The geopolitical impact of China’s economic diplomacy On March 8, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings held a public forum that brought together experts from Japan and the United States to examine the geopolitical implications of China’s recent economic diplomacy strategy. -Brookings (video)

JAPAN RISK

Japan to end 5-year peacekeeping mission in South Sudan -The Asahi Shimbun

Abe’s revisionism nets own goals at home and away What links Osaka, Seoul, Busan and Glendale, California? Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s championing of revisionist history. -The Japan Times

Japan trade deal a 'very high priority': US commerce chief The U.S. regards negotiating a trade agreement with Japan as a "very high priority," Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told reporters here Friday. -Nikkei

SOUTH KOREA RISK

Will Park Geun-hye’s exit reshape South Korea’s relationship with China and North Korea? Seoul’s relationship with Beijing has become strained in recent months over the deployment of THAAD anti-missile system and experts suggest new administration may be unlikely to reverse course -SCMP

FALL OF THE QUEEN In the summer of 1974, Park Geun Hye was 22 and studying at the University of Grenoble in France. Her ambition was to become a teacher. -The Straits Times

TAIWAN RISK

DPP legislator urges bill to deter ‘foreign aggression’ A draft bill aimed at reducing unlawful aggression by local organizations with known ties to China would treat certain public disturbances as “foreign aggression,” Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Wang Ding-yu (王定宇) said. -Taipei Times

Push to absorb Taiwan ‘is growing’ on mainland Adviser on cross-strait issues says more voices than ever are calling for legislation to reunite with breakaway island by force -SCMP

INDIA RISK

Narendra Modi’s B.J.P. Party Wins Big in Uttar Pradesh, India’s Largest State Prime Minister Narendra Modi led his party to a landslide victory in India’s largest state on Saturday, consolidating his power and putting him in a strong position to win re-election in 2019. -NYT

India’s democracy is strained by illiberalism Property rights and economic liberties were thrown out the window as the state encroached upon and then occupied the commanding heights of the economy. -The Japan Times

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

After $225 Billion in Deals Last Year, China Reins In Overseas Investment Now, China — with a worried eye on the money leaving its borders — is telling some of its companies to cool it down. -NYT

Airbnb gets Cabinet OK as Japan sets rules on home-sharing businesses Airbnb Inc. is finally getting the green light to do business in Japan after years of operating in gray areas of the law. -The Japan Times

Five Hong Kong Uber drivers lodge appeals following conviction for driving without permit and third-party insurance Five were each fined HK$10,000, banned from driving for one year and had smartphones or iPads they used in committing the offences confiscated -SCMP

Donald Trump Has Call Centers in the Philippines Worried Outsourcing companies in the Philippines, whose clients are mainly U.S. companies, are worried that Donald Trump’s plan to bring jobs back to America won’t end at just manufacturing but extend into services. -Bloomberg

Private hospitals target Southeast Asia's middle class Private health insurers also help fill gaps in social security programs -Nikkei

GLOBAL MACRO

China Says Economy Showed Signs of Improvement in Start of Year China’s economy has shown signs of improvement in the first two months of the year with little risk of a hard landing, senior Chinese officials said. -Bloomberg

Aussie State Reeling From China Slowdown Set to Punish Turnbull Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberal party is poised to lose power in Australia’s western state, with polls showing voters deserting the government as the spoils from a resources boom evaporate. -Bloomberg