Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Global Risk Briefing Politics is roiling markets as the Trump era dawns, Chinese leadership turns over and major elections sweep through Europe. Bloomberg’s risk map signals where danger lurks -Bloomberg

Geopolitics, Regulations Causing Wave of Divestments Eighty-two percent of companies surveyed say “macroeconomic volatility” will increase their chances of divesting a business in the next year. -CFO

U.S. RISK

Trump’s Immigration Policy Makes Jobs Goal Even Tougher to Reach -Bloomberg

Immigration projected to drive growth in U.S. working-age population through at least 2035 For most of the past half-century, adults in the U.S. Baby Boom generation – have been the main driver of the nation’s expanding workforce. But as this large generation heads into retirement, the increase in the potential labor force will slow markedly, and immigrants will play the primary role in the future growth of the working-age population (though they will remain a minority of it). -Pew Center Research

The coming GOP assault on regulations Behind the scenes, the war has started over the main Senate bill to roll back the administrative state -Politico

THINK TANK WATCH >> America’s Role in the World Congress and US Foreign Policy -Atlantic Council

To Reduce Trade Deficit, White House Wants Partners to Buy American Director of National Trade Council Peter Navarro says push for more sales would come as part of bilateral trade deals or in separate trade negotiations -WSJ (subscription)

SHOVEL READY >> Trump suggests 90-day deadline for states to start infrastructure projects: report -The Hill

Danny Noonan: I gotta go to college.
Ty Webb: You don't have to go to college. This isn't Russia. Is this Russia?

Navigating America’s Economic-Policy Shocks With a series of tax and trade moves being considered in the United States this year, emerging-market economies are likely to face devaluation pressure and volatility. -Project Syndicate

AMERICAS

McConnell on Mexico paying for the border wall: 'Uh, no' -Politico

Colombia facing violence despite Farc deal, ICRC says Thousands of people across Colombia are still falling victim to rape, killings and torture despite a peace deal with Farc rebels, the International Committee of the Red Cross says. -BBC

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT +

OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

TCM – TRUMP’S CHINESE MEDICINE >> Trump Threats Push China’s Top SUV Maker to Review Mexico Plant -Bloomberg

U.S. Aluminum Industry Files Dumping Action Against China The Aluminum Association’s Trade Enforcement Working Group today filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions charging that unfairly traded imports of certain aluminum foil from the People’s Republic of China -The Aluminum Association

China's Wanfeng Eyes U.S. Acquisitions Amid Trade Tensions Rising trade tensions are pushing Chinese car-wheel maker Wanfeng Auto Holding Group to seek further acquisitions in the U.S. to help localize more production and cut its reliance on imports. -Bloomberg

The Impact of US Export Controls on the Sale of a Manufacturing Business -JD Supra

Amazon gives up fight for Alexa’s First Amendment rights after defendant hands over data Amazon has abandoned its legal battle to protect its Alexa assistant with First Amendment rights — for now at least. The company filed a motion against a police search warrant in an Arkansas murder case earlier this month, but has now dropped the case after the defendant agreed to hand over the data contained on his Echo speaker to police. -The Verge

THE FIRST TECH COMPANIES TO DO SO >> Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb condemn Trump’s revised immigration ban -The Verge

After Snap IPO, U.S. regulator questions unequal voting rights One of two current members of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission raised questions on Thursday for companies like Snap Inc (SNAP.N) that offer shareholders unequal voting rights, saying the agency should "focus on how some innovations may prove detrimental to investors." -Reuters

BHP eyes temporary workers to break strike at Chile's Escondida mine. BHP Billiton may try to restart production at the world's No.1 copper mine Escondida in Chile using temporary workers once the strike surpasses 30 days, the company told a local radio station on Wednesday. -NASDAQ

Order for Venezuela to pay Exxon $1.4 billion in damages overturned -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

Debt Ceiling Quandary Unleashes Volatility in Treasury Bills -Bloomberg

Trump tweets hurt equities; U.S. dollar gains Global equity markets fell on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump's allegations that he was wiretapped by his predecessor raised worries about his ability to push ahead with tax reform plans, while the dollar rose on concerns that an anti-EU candidate may be elected France's next president. -Reuters

No matador in sight as bull market in U.S. stocks turns eight -Reuters

Oil Drops Below $50 for First Time Since December on Supply Glut West Texas Intermediate closed at the lowest since Nov. 29, the day before OPEC approved the first supply cuts in eight years. -Bloomberg