Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Backing Into World War III America must check the assertive, rising powers of Russia and China before it's too late. Accepting spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster. -Foreign Policy

The Global Economy’s Surprising Resilience Disconcerting political developments in the United States and the United Kingdom might lead one to conclude that an already challenged world economy will struggle even more in the near term. But as we continue into 2017, the cyclical evidence actually suggests otherwise. -Project Syndicate

EUROPE RISK

Flynn to recommend Trump back NATO membership for Montenegro Flynn will recommend that President Donald Trump support allowing the small Balkan nation of Montenegro to join NATO, POLITICO has learned — despite strong opposition from Russia. -Politico

Poland wants nuclear weapons for Europe Jaroslaw Kaczynski, chairman of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), has in a newspaper interview called for a European nuclear superpower. -DW

Der Spiegel urges Germany to lead global opposition to Trump -The Hill

“Germany must stand up in opposition to the 45th president of the United States and his government,” -Klaus Brinkbäumer

Most British voters now approve of May's approach to Brexit -Reuters

The proportion of the public that approve of the government's preparations for Brexit stood at 53 percent, ORB found, up 15 points from a poll last month when only 38 percent approved, with 62 percent disapproving.

François Fillon Blames ‘Media Lynching’ for His Campaign Crisis -NYT

Gianni Pittella, bringing socialism back Italian MEP prepares for a grand tour of the European left. Gianni Pittella is on a mission to rescue the battered and bruised socialists in the European Parliament and across the Continent. -Politico 

RUSSIA RISK

Russia’s Bad Equilibrium After more than two years of economic contraction, Russia seems to have achieved some semblance of stability. Though economic growth is expected to reach only about 1% in 2017, the fear of economic destabilization that has permeated the country since its 2014 invasion of Crimea – which was met with crippling sanctions from the West – has all but evaporated. -Project Syndicate

MIDDLE EAST RISK

What Turkey will be looking for when Trump calls Erdogan -The Washington Post

Former Top Treasury Official: Trump's Iran Sanctions More Symbolic Than Punitive The Trump administration warned Iran it would be "on notice" after a recent ballistic missile launch and proceeded to impose sanctions on 25 entities linked to Iran's ballistic missile program and support for terrorism Friday. -The Weekly Standard

Iran tests missiles just one day after US sanctions Several missiles were deployed during a military exercise, in defiance of new US sanctions on Iranian interests. -DW

Israel passes controversial law on West Bank settlements -BBC

Syria has secretly executed thousands of political prisoners, rights group says -The Washington Post

AFRICA RISK

Lake Chad: 'Countries need to recognize the gravity of the crisis' The Lake Chad Basin crisis is now at a turning point. Boko Haram’s attacks and military counter-offensives have displaced at least 2.3 million people. -DW

Joyous Africans Take to the Rails, With China’s Help But perhaps the biggest star of the day was China, which designed the system, supplied the trains and imported hundreds of engineers for the six years it took to plan and build the 466-mile line. And the $4 billion cost? Chinese banks provided nearly all the financing. -NYT

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Don't Expect Europe to Lie Down Over Dodd-Frank The bluntest assessment comes from ECB chief Mario Draghi, who told the European Parliament a financial deregulation drive is the "last thing" anyone needs right now. -Bloomberg Gadfly

Facebook and Google Step Up Efforts to Combat Fake News New initiatives important in pivotal year for European politics -WSJ (subscription)

Coming soon … ‘Netflix on holiday’. The European Parliament, Council and the Commission Tuesday struck a deal that will allow EU citizens to take their digital subscriptions, like Amazon Prime and Netflix, with them on holidays and business trips outside their home countries. -Politico.eu

QUERY>> nanny EU? A sovereign, focused on this?

Brexit vote already bad for firms, bosses say The Brexit vote is already having a negative impact on business, a survey of bosses from some of the UK's biggest companies has suggested. -BBC

Turkey transfers billions of dollars worth of assets to state wealth fund Turkey has transfered government stakes worth billions to a new sovereign wealth fund. The fund could be used to finance mega projects to revive the economy, but would lead to greater political control of companies. -DW

The state advances; free enterprise recedes …

GLOBAL MACRO

Draghi Rebuts Trump Lines on Currency Wars, Bank Rules Mario Draghi took the Trump administration to task, addressing recent assertions that Germany is a currency manipulator and warning against the rollback of post-crisis financial regulation. -Bloomberg

Psst, Europe’s economy is doing well Stronger growth isn’t kindling warm feelings for the EU or its single currency. -Politico.eu

Don't Sell the Euro Short. It's Here to Stay. More generally, those predicting, or advocating, the euro’s demise tend to underestimate the technical difficulties of reintroducing national currencies … ignor[ing] the complexity of actually removing controls once they are adopted. -Bloomberg View

Saudi Arabia cannot escape destiny as swing producer Saudi Arabia has been forced to return to the role of swing producer in the oil market, despite the country’s insistence for three decades it would never play the role again. -Reuters