Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Why cities sink The good news is some causes of land subsidence can be stopped -The Economist

U.S. RISK

Exclusive-Trump Wants to Expand U.S. Nuclear Arsenal, Make It 'Top of the Pack' -New York Times

Trump looks for a reset with his address to Congress White House officials say Tuesday's televised speech will highlight Trump's executive actions and pass the ball to Republicans on the Hill. -Politico

In first month of Trump presidency, State Department has been sidelined -The Washington Post

Trump puts tougher immigration policy in motion Thousands of new immigration officers could lead to a spike in deportations. -Politico

The Coming Battle Over Legal Immigration -The Atlantic

DHS chief: Military won't be used for deportations -The Hill

“Let me be very, very clear, there will be no, repeat, no mass deportations,” he said. “Everything we do in DHS will be done legally and according to human rights and the legal justice system of the United States.”

POSSE WHAT? >> Overview of the Posse Comitatus Act -Rand

US Customs wants to check Chinese visitors' social media accounts The US Customs and Border Protection wants to begin asking Chinese visitors to voluntarily disclose their social media handles when they enter the country. -The Verge

PODCAST OF THE WEEK >> Deep Dish: Trump's National Security Council -CCGA

AMERICAS

Tillerson, Kelly head to Mexico amid deep strains in bilateral ties -The Washington Post

Trump Trade Threat Is New Opening for Tighter Mexico-China Ties Mexico is in for some painful restructuring if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through with his protectionist threats. But the nation also faces a unique opportunity to reduce its reliance on its American neighbor and shift its focus to the world's No. 2 economy, China. -Bloomberg

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT +

OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Trump says Republican border tax could boost U.S. jobs -Reuters

Where U.S. Companies Stand on the Border Adjustment Tax Exporters and importers are at odds over the proposal. A divide is emerging among American companies when it comes to the Trump administration’s proposed border adjustment tax. For some, the tax—which would shift taxation from where goods are produced to where goods are sold—could bode poorly, since prices for consumers would go up, potentially decreasing demand for their products. But for others, there may be a benefit, as the tax could increase demand for American-made goods, boosting sales and jobs. On both sides, companies have potentially billions of dollars at stake. -The Atlantic

Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink U.S. Home Prices -Bloomberg

Farm Wages to Show Real-Time Impact of Trump Deportation Policy Across America’s orchards and crop fields, a shrinking supply of migrants has already driven pay up faster than in the broader workforce. President Donald Trump’s immigration policy may turbocharge that trend. -Bloomberg

Boeing Fighter Jet, Feared Dead, Gets New Life From Trump Tweets -Bloomberg

Mercedes-Benz mulls North American potential for pick-up trucks Asked where Mercedes might build the pick-ups for sale in the United States, Mornhinweg said that its current production capacity in Argentina was unlikely to be sufficient to serve the U.S. market. A new production site in the United States was likely to be considered, he added. -Reuters

How Toshiba Lost $6 Billion Of the 30-odd applications for reactors that started in the mid-2000s, only the four Westinghouse units have gone forward. -Bloomberg

Lawmakers Push for Tighter Scrutiny of Chinese Investment in U.S. Battle lines emerge as senators push varying plans to strengthen secretive committee -WSJ (subscription)

GLOBAL MACRO

Mnuchin Says No Decision on China and Yuan Until April -Bloomberg (video)

Trump calls Chinese 'grand champions' of currency manipulation Trump said he has not "held back" in his assessment that China manipulates its yuan currency, despite not acting on a campaign promise to declare it a currency manipulator on his first day in office. -Reuters