Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Global Risks Begin to Recede It isn’t just the Trump effect; from oil prices to Chinese outflows, the world is looking up -WSJ (subscription)

Restoring Faith in Globalization The communists are keeping the globalization faith; but the capitalists seem to have lost theirs. This is bizarre – and entirely out of sync with past performance and current facts. -Project Syndicate

President Trump's East Asia Challenge In today's Washington, narratives about the Trump strategy toward East Asia are popping up like late-winter crocuses. -Real Clear Politics

A good corrective on … where the conventional broadcast media gets US policy in East Asia wrong …

CHINA RISK

China stages another mass show of military force in restive Xinjiang Anti-terror rally in regional capital Urumqi follows similar shows of strength in the Uygur heartland -SCMP

China’s Growth Odyssey China’s steadily declining rate of economic growth is a problem for both China and the world economy. Now that US President Donald Trump is set to wreak havoc on global stability, can China still hope to achieve the widely shared prosperity it has long sought? -Project Syndicate 

Can China Become a Leader of Innovation? -China File

PODCAST OF THE WEEK >> Intrigue: Murder in the Lucky Holiday Hotel The story of the mysterious murder which changed the course of Chinese politics. -BBC (audio)

JAPAN RISK

Abe defends close Trump ties; opposition calls him a ‘chicken’ Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he has “no choice” but to forge close ties with U.S. President Donald Trump despite staunch criticism in Japan and around the world about the polarizing U.S. leader. -The Asahi Shimbun

Senior LDP executive Komura suggests study on acquiring pre-emptive strike capability An executive of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party suggested Sunday that Japan possibly needs to consider whether it should acquire the capability to conduct pre-emptive strikes against enemy bases. -The Japan Times

Japan, South Korea, U.S. condemn DPRK test / Ministers reaffirm trilateral cooperation -The Japan Times

KOREAS RISK

China says understands South Korean need for security, still opposes US anti-missile system Thaad China understands South Korea's need to protect its security but Seoul still needs to respect Beijing's concerns about the deployment of an advanced USanti-missile system, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his South Korean counterpart. -The Straits Times

China to suspend all imports of coal from North Korea -Reuters

TAIWAN RISK

New Chinese Missile Upgrade Likely Designed With Taiwan In Its Crosshairs -Forbes

Taiwan climbs to record 11th in Economic Freedom Index -Taiwan News

“The overall freedom to conduct business is relatively well protected under the transparent regulatory environment.”

Taiwan-US FTA hinges on island's agriculture stance: experts Washington think tank experts said Monday that any future free trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan hinged on the island's resolve on agricultural trade issues. -The China Post

RISK >> China threatens to block Taiwan's international space after legislators visit India -Taiwan News

REALIZED >> Taiwan regrets Spanish decision to deport Taiwanese to China in fraud case -Reuters

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

Carrier Strike Group 1 Conducts South China Sea Patrol Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 1, including Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 1's Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108), and aircraft from Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2, began routine operations in the South China Sea, Feb. 18. -US Navy

These Countries Could Be Trump’s Next Trade War Targets -Bloomberg

China; Japan; Vietnam; South Korea; India; Malaysia

Bilateral trade deals 'more realistic' option: Mustapa In the absence of the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, bilateral trade agreements with trading partners would be a ‘doable and more realistic’ option for Malaysia. -New Straits Times

Singapore: The Battle That Destroyed the British Empire in Asia But when the news arrived that the fortress of Singapore had surrendered to the Japanese on February 15, 1942, along with eighty thousand British troops, even Churchill was stunned. -The National Interest

Malaysians rally for and against sharia law -Bangkok Post

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Rational Thinking About China's Semiconductor Push How worried should the United States really be about China’s strategy to invest in overseas chip makers? -The Diplomat

Toshiba failed to rein in Westinghouse's expansion drive Nuclear unit went too far with ill-fated US deal, faces China risks -Nikkei

Singapore to Allow Foreign Acquisitions of Finance Companies Singapore’s central bank said it will allow foreign takeovers of the country’s three finance companies, as part of wider industry changes that seek to boost lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. -Bloomberg

U.S. Firms in China See Chance for Reset on Market Access Businesses warm to pursuing ‘reciprocity,’ or a quid-pro-quo approach, with China -WSJ (subscription)

Didi’s new plan to win over unfriendly authorities -Tech-in-Asia

Uber Reaches New Agreement with Taiwan Government -The News Lens

Freeport Indonesia CEO resigns after force majeure on copper exports Chappy Hakim, chief executive of miner Freeport-McMoran Inc's (FCX.N) Indonesian unit, has resigned, the company said on Saturday, after the parent firm declared force majeure on copper concentrate shipments from its Grasberg mine in Papua. -Reuters

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he will review his minister's order to close more than half the country's mines for environmental violations, following an outcry from affected producers. -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

China's Currency Policy Approaches Breaking Point In terms of China, it’s important to remember that the yuan’s external value is managed by authorities in a way that isn’t compatible with a sharp appreciation pressure of the dollar vis-à-vis all other currencies. -Bloomberg

Gold prices benefit from geopolitical woes, up 6.5% this year -Live Mint

IMF to loan Mongolia US$440 million as part of bailout package Mongolia reached an initial agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a three-year programme that includes a US$440 million loan package as part of a US$5.5 billion bailout to help the north Asian country with looming debt repayments. -SCMP