Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

'A post-Western age': Munich Security Report details fragile world order. With the rise of populism threatening the international order, the report warns of an "illiberal moment" globally. A withdrawal of the US on the world stage could allow others to take advantage of the power vacuum. -DW

READ THE FULL REPORT HERE >> Munich Security Report 2017

EUROPE RISK

Brussels wants ministers to shoulder policy responsibility The Commission is no longer content to take the blame for controversial EU decisions. -Politico.eu

Germany hopes for Trump China trade dividend Protectionism in US could could mean Berlin and Beijing doing more business together. -Politico.eu

A row over money could derail Brexit talks before they have begun The risk of talks blowing up is greater than many realise -The Economist

Investors Are Waking Up to the Risk of a Le Pen Victory While a Le Pen win is still seen as a tail risk and the first round of the election is still more than two months away, the unexpected outcomes of last year’s votes in the U.K. and the U.S. have raised investor awareness of political risk. The National Front candidate’s threat to take France out of the euro could call into question the fate of the common currency. -Bloomberg

Former Italy PM Renzi calls for party reform, leadership contest Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has called on his Democratic Party to stop squabbling. Renzi has requested early elections, which seems increasingly unlikely. -DW

Sweden FM: Baltics ‘afraid’ of Russia, Nordics stepping up Donald Trump’s US election win has spurred more cooperation in Northern Europe. -Politico.eu

Mateusz Morawiecki: EU 'completely misunderstood the situation' Poland's ultra-conservative Law and Justice Party has come under fire for trying to take power from the country's highest court and cracking down on media freedom. -DW

RUSSIA RISK

Russia Deploys Missile, Violating Treaty and Challenging Trump -NYT

Trump expects Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine: White House -Reuters

Russia tells White House it will not return Crimea to Ukraine Moscow says an overwhelming majority of Crimeans voted to become part of Russia in a 2014 referendum wanting protection from what the Kremlin cast as an illegal coup in Kiev. -Reuters

The Kremlin Is Starting to Worry About Trump Vladimir Putin's entourage cheered the outcome of the U.S. election – until they saw exactly what they were dealing with. -Bloomberg

Trump's Russia Reset Will Survive Flynn's Ouster But the uncertainty that Trump has brought to the United States is spilling into even the places that he hoped to do business with. -The Atlantic

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Trump’s Shift to ‘Outside-In’ Strategy for Mideast Peace Is a Long Shot -NYT

What Does Trump Want From Netanyahu? It’s clear enough what the Israeli prime minister expects. But the Americans are in a position to make their own demands. -The Atlantic

AFRICA RISK

The Gambia: UK 'very pleased' about Commonwealth return Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who is in The Gambia, has said he is "very pleased" the West African state intends to rejoin the Commonwealth. -BBC

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Europe’s Data Privacy Rules Could Give Artificial Intelligence a Global Headache Companies experimenting with artificial intelligence technologies may find it challenging over the next few years, as they expand their operations in Europe. That’s because by May 2018, tough new European Union rules related to the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) will come into effect and could pose problems for companies that rely on gathering and processing user data for their businesses. -Fortune

Top Italian official says Facebook must do more against hate speech Facebook, Twitter, Google's YouTube and Microsoft agreed last May to an EU code of conduct to tackle online hate speech, pledging to review the majority of valid requests for removal of illegal abuse within 24 hours in Europe. -Reuters

The Promise of Middle East Sovereign Wealth Funds Funds like the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) grabbed headlines as they gobbled up assets – including listed securities, private companies, and real estate – primarily in Europe and North America. But the world in which SWFs invest has changed, and they must change with it. -Project Syndicate

Oil companies bullish on Egypt, eyeing more investment, discoveries -Reuters

WATCH >> Mozambique's lucrative ruby mines -BBC (video)

GLOBAL MACRO

The Financial Education of the Eurozone In 2017, Europe’s leaders will confront an array of severe tests, including tumultuous elections featuring populist insurgencies, complex negotiations over Britain’s departure from the European Union, and a new American president who thinks that the transatlantic alliance is “obsolete.” -Project Syndicate

EU-U.S. trade drops for first time since 2013 amid wider slowdown -Reuters

Greek economy shrinks between October and December Output fell by 0.4% in the final quarter of the year, compared with growth of 0.9% in the third quarter. Analysts had been expecting the growth to continue. -BBC