Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays

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GLOBAL RISK

WANT TO READ >> Where History Is Being Made -NYT

Q. If you could move to the place on earth where history is most importantly being made right now, where would you go?

A. Today, I’d say the most pivotal spot on earth is Washington, D.C. Washington will either preserve the world order or destroy it.

But they also said that the most important place to be now might be places like Erie, Pa.; Fresno, Ca.; and Columbus, Ohio.

U.S. RISK

Federal appeals court maintains suspension of Trump’s immigration order -The Washington Post

In defence of Donald Trump’s Twitter diplomacy The US president has earned disapproval for his tweeting. But there’s something to be said for the straight-talking immediacy of his communication -The Guardian

Public Opinion and the US-Japan Alliance at the Outset of the Trump Administration -CCGA

Key Findings >>

-Though the Japanese public believes the Trump administration will have negative impacts on Japan’s economy and security, they still support the US-Japan alliance, albeit with a shaken confidence in the United States

-Americans continue to view Japan warmly, rating the country at 60° on a 0-100 thermometer scale, and a majority (60%) support US bases in Japan

-Americans and Japanese share common views on the top threats facing their countries: international terrorism and North Korea’s nuclear program

-Both Americans and Japanese prefer pursuing a policy of friendly cooperation and engagement with China rather than actively working to limit its growth

The Abe-Trump Summit: Aiming for the Fairway They will meet at the White House on February 10 and then travel to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida for a round of golf, an opportunity to develop a foundation of trust that is critical to advancing alliance relationships. -CSIS

OUT OF THE ROUGH?>> Trump backs 'One China' policy in first call with Xi -AFP

U.S. Policy Toward China: Recommendations for a New Administration Task Force on U.S.-China Policy With a new administration in the White House, maintaining what is perhaps the country’s most crucial bilateral relationship remains a critical issue. -Asia Society

Well-respected group of China hands, but thinking still a bit tired - time for new thinking …

THOUGHTS PUBLISHED IN 2015>> New Thinking on US-China: 10 Things To Do Within the Next 36 Months

Time's up for soft China policy US defense chief sees more active role in South China Sea -Nikkei

AMERICAS

One of Obama’s parting acts: Suspending lawsuit provision of Helms-Burton In his last month in office, former President Barack Obama preempted what could have been one of President Donald Trump’s first actions on Cuba: he suspended a section of the Helms-Burton Act that allows former owners of commercial property expropriated by Cuba to sue foreign companies “trafficking” in those confiscated holdings. -Miami Herald

Brazil swings to the right, setting the stage for a Trump-like leader -The Washington Post

Argentina’s Trump-Like Immigration Order Rattles South America President Mauricio Macri has issued a decree curbing immigration to Argentina, with his government declaring that newcomers from poorer countries in Latin America bring crime. -NYT

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT +

OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Corporate America tackles Trump Major American companies are increasingly willing to take on the new president publicly — despite the risk of a backlash. -Politico

Google, unlike Microsoft, must turn over foreign emails: U.S. judge A U.S. judge has ordered Google to comply with search warrants seeking customer emails stored outside the United States, diverging from a federal appeals court that reached the opposite conclusion in a similar case involving Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O). -Reuters

Tesla Workers Contact UAW to Unionize Musk’s Lone Auto Plant -Bloomberg

Mazda, Subaru brace for Trump's trade policies Smaller automakers more exposed due to limited US production -Nikkei

Trump Pledges Airlines Help in Feud Over Foreign Rivals’ Aid President Donald Trump told U.S. airlines he would help them compete with foreign carriers that are aided by their governments, a crucial signal of White House support for an industry campaign that began in 2015. -Bloomberg

White House plans directive targeting 'conflict minerals' rule President Donald Trump is planning to issue a directive targeting a controversial Dodd-Frank rule that requires companies to disclose whether their products contain "conflict minerals" from a war-torn part of Africa, according to sources familiar with the administration's thinking. -Reuters

GLOBAL MACRO

U.S. Treasuries to stay in demand due to geopolitical risks: Pimco -Reuters

Mexico Raises Key Rate After Inflation Surges and Peso Stumbles Mexico’s central bank raised borrowing costs for a fourth straight meeting as President Donald Trump’s election undermined the peso and fuel prices soared, sending inflation spiraling above target. -Bloomberg