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GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

German military study: EU collapse conceivable worst case The Western order could fall apart by 2040, according to an internal Bundeswehr report. -Politico.eu

Lithuania expects NATO to reach deal on Baltic air shield -Reuters

EUROPE RISK

Silvio Berlusconi's surprise political comeback Italy's former prime minister made the claim after the candidate he backed won regional elections held in Sicily on Sunday. -BBC

Sicilian surge boosts Berlusconi’s national ambitions Former PM’s candidate scores clear win over populist 5Star Movement. -Politico.eu

Catalan strike severs road links as secessionist leaders regroup -Reuters

Finland woos US with more muscular defense role Amid worries about Russia, Helsinki suggests big military exercise. -Politico.eu

Ross backs post-Brexit UK-US trade deal One of Donald Trump's leading allies has said he is optimistic that the UK and US will sign a free trade deal after Brexit. -BBC

RUSSIA RISK

'With reckless daring, new Russia was being born': the October Revolution, 100 years on -France24

Russia’s Imperial Instinct Russian President Vladimir Putin may not have a firm or comprehensive plan for imperial restoration, but he undoubtedly has an abiding inclination to make imperial advances whenever the risk is bearable. And, historically, Russian imperialism has thrived when Europe and the West have been divided. -Project Syndicate

Putin's National Guard to protect Russian regional leaders -BBC

MIDDLE EAST RISK

The meteoric rise of Prince Mohammed bin Salman June 2017 Prince Mohammed bin Salman was appointed as heir to the Saudi throne. At only 32, he has quickly ascended to power, and shown a desire to push ahead in reforming an oil-reliant economy and certain cultural traditions. -France24 

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi rules out third term President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has reaffirmed his support for a two-term limit for the office of the president. He did not, however, confirm if he intended to run for a second term in 2018. -DW

AFRICA RISK

Hostilities in Nigeria's Niger Delta blamed on government neglect Militants in the Niger Delta are threatening to resume attacks against the central government and oil companies. They blame the administration for their decision and say nothing changed in the year the ceasefire held. -DW

Liberia's president says 'our democracy is under assault' -Reuters

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Paradise Papers: Apple shifted billions offshore to avoid tax New relevations about Apple's tax avoidance strategy are making headlines as the Paradise Papers scandal unfolds further. EU finance ministers are due to discuss the issue during talks in Brussels on Tuesday. -DW

Emmanuel Macron makes bid for Silicon Valley on the Seine The French president is using state cash to foster tech startups. -Politico.eu

It’s Not Tesla That Scares Europe in Electric-Car Race Electric-car production in the European Union got a spur on Wednesday as EU regulators acted to close a technological gap with China by seeking stricter emission curbs on manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV. -Bloomberg

50 London banks in talks for post-Brexit move Dozens of banks are in advanced talks with the European Central Bank about moving operations to the European mainland. As Brexit nears, many London-based financial institutions are considering Frankfurt, Paris or Dublin. -DW

U.S. Justice Department unseals charges in Rolls-Royce Holdings foreign bribery case The U.S. Justice Department unsealed charges on Tuesday against five individuals for their alleged role in a scheme to pay bribes to foreign government officials to benefit Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc and help secure a contract to provide services for a major gas pipeline from Central Asia to China. -Reuters

Paradise Papers documents raise questions over African mining deal -BBC

GLOBAL MACRO

The name’s bonds, Franco-German bonds A modest German proposal that will find favor at the Elysée palace, and discomfort inside the ruling center-right party in Berlin. -Politico.eu

Italy's Shrinking Safety Net One of Mario Draghi's hands is being tied behind his back just as bond markets may need his help the most. -Bloomberg Gadfly

France backpedals on pledge to cut reliance on nuclear power France's environment minister is backing down on promises to sharply reduce nuclear power production so that the government can concentrate on reducing fossil fuels instead. -France24