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GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

WATCH President Donald Trump Speech in Vietnam at the APEC Summit -YouTube

READ Remarks by President Trump at APEC CEO Summit Da Nang, Vietnam -The White House

“Today, I am here to offer a renewed partnership with America to work together to strengthen the bonds of friendship and commerce between all of the nations of the Indo-Pacific, and together, to promote our prosperity and security.” -DJT

‘Indo-Pacific’ is new US name for Asia in slap at China Trump administration officials have started to refer to Asia as the “Indo-Pacific,” rather than the “Asia-Pacific” region -Asia Times

‘INDO-PACIFIC’ BOOKS 2 CONSIDER

Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power -Robert D. Kaplan

The Voice of Asia -James A. Michener

Talking tough on trade, Trump pushes 'America first' in Asia -The Asahi Shimbun

APEC vows to address unfair trade practices -The Japan Times

CHINA RISK

Xi and Trump look friendly, but anti-US feeling stirs in China CHINA’S leader, Xi Jinping, welcomed Donald Trump on the American president’s first visit to Beijing like a Chinese emperor receiving a barbarian potentate, with a mixture of flattery and disdain. -The Economist

Trump praises 'productive' China talks, but tough action seen ahead -Reuters

“My concern is you may see a shift towards a much harder line coming from the U.S. administration. That will be a huge surprise to China and President Xi, especially given that Xi likely feels he has done a lot for Trump on this visit.”

China’s success is tied to its relationship with the US despite what you may read -SCMP

China’s New Ideology Czar Takes Center Stage on Journalists' Day Wang Huning tells Chinese journalists to follow the CCP’s lead “unswervingly.” -The Diplomat

China’s Technology Ambitions Could Upset the Global Trade Order Washington officials and major global companies increasingly worry about a new generation of deals that could give China a firmer grip on the technology of tomorrow. -NYT

HONG KONG RISK

Full democracy in Hong Kong would open Pandora’s box Those wanting such a system would be far from content once it was established and they would soon be calling for the city to separate from China -SCMP

JAPAN RISK

Trump visit puts Tokyo at the center of geopolitics Abe capitalizes on election win and growing global standing -Nikkei

Akita, Yamaguchi to get Aegis Ashore / GSDF involvement expected to strengthen missile defense -The Japan News

Abe hails 'fresh start' to Japan-China ties after Xi meeting -Reuters

Abe supports Taiwan's bid to join regional economic integration Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sunday expressed his support for Taiwan's efforts to join regional economic integration and participate in international activities, said sources close to James Soong (宋楚瑜), head of Taiwan's delegation to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vietnam. -Focus Taiwan

KOREAS RISK

Can the United States, China, and South Korea Cooperate on North Korea? -CFR

Seoul-Beijing detente on THAAD is win-win for China Agreement jostles US-led security alliances China hit the jackpot in three major ways in its recent agreement to mend ties with South Korea over the latter’s deployment of a US THAAD antimissile system -Asia Times

TAIWAN RISK

With Trump in China, Taiwan worries about becoming a ‘bargaining chip’ TAIPEI, Taiwan — President Trump’s visit to Beijing has been watched closely around the world — but few countries have had more reason to scrutinize it than Taiwan. -The Washington Post

Taiwan urged to move fast to join regional trade deal -Focus Taiwan

APEC: Taiwan’s Most Important International Forum But for Taiwan, APEC is much more than a regional forum; it is the most important international organization in which Taiwan is allowed to participate. -AmCham Taipei

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

Trump lands in Philippines, offers to mediate on South China Sea -Reuters

‘Better left untouched’: Philippines and Vietnam wary of Trump offer to mediate South China Sea disputes Beijing suspects Washington could be planning to stir trouble in the contested waters -SCMP

China assures 'safe passage for all' in South China Sea, Xi tells Duterte on sidelines of Apec -The Straits Times

Piracy Increases in Straits of Malacca and Singapore The number of incidents of piracy against ships in Asia in October increased compared to the same period in 2016. Nine incidents were reported in October 2017 compared to seven incidents reported in October 2016. -Maritime Executive

Countries need to foster greater, freer trade to continue to prosper: PM Lee -SCMP

Anti-US protests in the Philippines continue for third day Police in riot gear used water cannon to prevent protesters from reaching US embassy in Manila. -The International Business Times

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Trump and Xi Both "Lose-Lose" Neither the U.S. nor China is well-served by ignoring the issues between them. Trump didn’t do U.S. businesses any favors by failing to address the major issues they face in China. -Bloomberg View

A MISSED WINDOW; BUT THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN Trans-Pacific Trade Partners Are Moving On, Without the U.S. A group of 11 countries announced on Saturday that they had committed to resurrecting a sweeping multinational trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, without the United States. -NYT

China widens foreign access to its giant financial sector China will raise foreign ownership limits in financial firms in a step granting access to a tantalizing multi-trillion dollar financial services market, as the world’s second-biggest economy seeks to position itself as a major global finance hub. -Reuters

How China Cheats By itself, industrial policy is just China’s problem. And Beijing almost always targets areas where it anticipates high domestic and foreign demand. Unfortunately, (i) the forecasts are often wrong, and (ii) when China’s own demand proves to be low, the excess supply is then dumped into global markets. This harms American companies and workers. -AEI

THE COUNTRY WHO MUST NOT BE NAMED China Spreads Propaganda to U.S. on Facebook, a Platform It Bans at Home China does not allow its people to gain access to Facebook, a powerful tool for disseminating information and influencing opinion. -NYT

PODCAST OF THE WEEK The Future of Artificial Intelligence in Asia -Disrupting We talked about how to separate the AI hype from reality, where companies can and are finding competitive advantage in AI -Disrupting Japan

Tencent Spreads Money Around the Tech World Snapchat parent company Snap Inc. disclosed Wednesday that China's Tencent Holdings Ltd. bought roughly $2 billion in Snap stock recently. It's hard to imagine Facebook Inc. or Google doing the same with a public tech company in Asia. -Bloomberg Gadfly

 Hong Kong should rebrand itself as a low tax haven As an offshore domicile, Hong Kong is confronted with a genuine opportunity to dominate the compliant tax haven business -SCMP

Brief: Uber’s Khosrowshahi ‘not optimistic’ on Southeast Asia profitability -Tech in Asia

GLOBAL MACRO

Moody's: Outlook for global sovereigns is stable; growth tempers high debt, geopolitical tensions Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") says that its outlook for sovereign creditworthiness in 2018 is stable overall, with the healthy growth and synchronized global economic expansion of 2017 likely to continue into 2018. -The Business Standard

National debt hits record ¥1.08 quad. Japan’s national debt hit a record ¥1,080,440.5 billion at the end of September, up ¥1,474.1 billion from three months before, the Finance Ministry said Friday. -The Japan News

READ Is China’s development finance a challenge to the international order? -Brookings

-         Chinese development finance to 131 developing countries shows no geographic pattern

-         Chinese lending is indifferent to risk, in particular it is uncorrelated with indices of political stability and rule of law

-         Some major borrowers have encountered debt sustainability problems while other borrowers are in good fiscal shape

-         Chinese banks have been reluctant to follow international norms for environmental safeguards but seem to be evolving towards those norms

US SHALE = ASIA’S RISK NOW Saudi Shocks Reawaken Global Oil Markets to Political Risk -Bloomberg