>> EMEA WEDNESDAYS

GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

GLOBAL RISK

Three Scenarios for the Global Economy The International Monetary Fund, which in recent years had characterized global growth as the “new mediocre,” recently upgraded its World Economic Outlook. But is the IMF right to think that the recent growth spurt will continue over the next few years, or is a temporary cyclical upswing about to be subdued by new tail risks? -Project Syndicate

Schaeuble Leaves, But His Ideas Are Here to Stay The outgoing German finance minister's recommendations for the euro zone reveal the limits of fiscal integration. -Bloomberg 

EUROPE RISK

The Prophet of Germany’s New Right From a tiny village in the country’s rural east, a leading nationalist intellectual builds a vision for the future of his movement across Europe. -NYT

Germany’s Angela Merkel Agrees to Limits on Accepting Refugees -NYT

Italy calls confidence vote on contested electoral law -Reuters

BLINK >> Catalan crisis: President Carles Puigdemont calls for independence talks with Spain Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has told the regional parliament that Catalonia should declare independence, but suspend the effects of the referendum to facilitate dialogue with Madrid. -DW

A Spanish Disquisition At first sight, the idea that Spain could descend into chaos is puzzling. But the actors in the conflict between Catalonia and Spain are facing what political scientists call a social dilemma: either side gains from selfish behavior unless the other side behaves selfishly, too, in which case both sides lose. -Project Syndicate

Britain could join NAFTA if Brexit trade deal fails: Telegraph newspaper -Reuters

RUSSIA RISK

How Russia Harvested American Rage to Reshape U.S. Politics A New York Times examination of hundreds of those posts shows that one of the most powerful weapons that Russian agents used to reshape American politics was the anger, passion and misinformation that real Americans were broadcasting across social media platforms. -NYT

Opinion: Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan — real friends? Turkey is a NATO member, which makes the fact that it is planning to buy anti-aircraft systems from Russia more than a little unusual. Are Ankara and Moscow developing a closer partnership? Miodrag Soric comments. -DW

MIDDLE EAST RISK

U.S. and Turkey Try to Prevent a Diplomatic Dispute From Growing -NYT

US-Turkey row escalates with tit-for-tat travel and visa restrictions US restrictions appear to be linked to arrest of consulate employee in Istanbul over alleged links to Gülen movement -The Guardian

The Downfall of the American-Turkish Alliance Suffice it to say, none of this is normal. The markets apparently agree. The Turkish Lira plunged 3.1 percent overnight, and Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 fell 2.7 percent. -The American Interest

Israel approves plans for thousands of new settlement units in the West Bank -The Washington Post

AFRICA RISK

US to ease decades-old sanctions against Sudan The US says it will soon end tough sanctions on Sudan, giving it access to the global banking system. But President al-Bashir remains a war crimes suspect, and Sudan stays on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. -DW

Kenya's Raila Odinga quits election re-run -BBC

The Central African Republic could be on the brink of a bloodbath U.N. officials have raised alarms about “early warning signs of genocide.” Diplomats and relief workers say this impoverished country of about 4.6 million runs the risk of an all-out civil war, which would compound the humanitarian crisis and create new security problems in a region already grappling with extremist groups such as Boko Haram. -The Washington Post

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Exclusive: Symantec CEO says source code reviews pose unacceptable risk -Reuters

Facebook confirms Russia ads on Instagram -BBC

Sheryl Sandberg is headed to D.C. to do damage control on Facebook’s Russian ad problem In a statement, Richmond said the Russia-tied ads may not have swayed the election — but they did cause “harm and additional resentment to young people who unselfishly fight for justice and equality for African Americans and other marginalized communities.” -recode

Google 'uncovers Russian ad campaign linked to US election' -BBC

Twitter and Facebook haven’t stopped Russia-backed RT from advertising on their websites Last week, Twitter turned over RT ads to congressional investigators -recode

Turkey sentences Wall Street Journal reporter to more than two years in prison -The Washington Post

GLOBAL MACRO

Euro rises to one-week high on upbeat data, view on ECB The euro hit a one-week peak on Tuesday as Germany rang up its best month for exports in a year in August and expectations grew that the European Central Bank may consider scaling back its asset purchases. -Reuters

Can Europe Reform its Carbon Market? There’s no denying that the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is, in its current configuration, failing as a carbon market. -The American Interest

Risk Appetite Returns as Spain Tensions Ease: Markets Wrap -Bloomberg

Scotland to set up publicly-owned energy company by 2021: Sturgeon Scotland will set up a publicly-owned, not-for-profit energy company by 2021 to increase competition and choice for consumers, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on Tuesday. -Reuters

Russia turns cold on crypto-currencies President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday crypto-currencies were risky and used for crime, as Russia’s central bank said it would block websites selling bitcoin and its rivals - a change of tone from a month-old promise to legalize the market. -Reuters