Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
APAC Mondays - January 9, 2017


GLOBAL RISK

"Geopolitical Recession" Top 10 Risks Facing the World in 2017 -Investopedia

1. U.S.
2. China
3. Germany
4. Nowhere
5. The Middle East
6. Central Banks
7. Silicon Valley
8. Turkey
9. North Korea
10. South Africa
 
"This year marks the most volatile political risk environment in the postwar period, at least as important to global markets as the economic recession of 2008." -Bremmer

Geopolitical and Sovereign Threats Increase Geopolitical risk, including terrorism threats, and sovereign defaults are increasing in likelihood this year, says Dr. Daniel Ralph, Academic Director of the Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge’s Judge Business School, who referenced the institution’s Global Risk Index for 2017. -Bloomberg  

12 Asian Geopolitical Trends and Events From 2016 That'll Matter in 2017 -The Diplomat

CHINA RISK

China corruption probes up 20% in 2016 Xi Jinping eyes even tougher measures ahead of party reshuffle in the fall -Nikkei

All Aboard China’s ‘New Silk Road’ Express China’s railway from the Pacific to London showcases the country's turn toward Europe at a time of tension with the United States. -FP


HONG KONG RISK

Hong Kong and Taiwan lawmakers deny colluding over political independence at conference besieged by protests Desire for democracy and social justice stressed at event after Beijing warns that any move to go it alone is ‘destined to fail’ -SCMP

Hong Kong shrouded in smog posing ‘very high’ health risk Monsoon brings choking pollutants from mainland China -SCMP


JAPAN RISK

Abe aide and Trump security adviser discuss alliance, potential summit -The Japan Times

Japan to recall envoy from South Korea over 'comfort women' statue Japan said on Friday it was temporarily recalling its ambassador to South Korea over a statue commemorating Korean women forced to work in Japanese military brothels during World War Two which it said violated an agreement to resolve the issue. -Reuters

South Korea regrets FX swap talks with Japan suspended over monument row South Korea's finance ministry on Friday expressed regrets that talks on a new currency swap agreement with Japan had been suspended by Tokyo due to political reasons. -Reuters


TAIWAN RISK

Taiwan's president arrives in U.S. en route to Central America Meetings between President Tsai and Trump aides remain unclear during the layover stops -Nikkei

Chinese military anxious over Taiwan, sources say The Chinese military has become alarmed by what it sees as US president-elect Donald Trump’s support of Taiwan and is considering strong measures to prevent the nation from moving toward independence, sources with ties to senior Chinese military officers said. -Taipei Times

The One China Policy: What Would Nixon Do? After the famous opening to China, Nixon and Kissinger’s views of China policy diverged -The Diplomat

Instructive insights from Joseph Bosco @oxbowgeopolitix


SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

A Closer Look at the Growing US-China Rivalry in the South China Sea A look at what a new report says about rising tensions between Washington and Beijing on a contentious issue. -The Diplomat

Indonesia Backs Off Plan to Suspend Ties With Australia’s Military -NYT

Indonesia to set up a task force to monitor the movement of foreigners Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Wiranto said on Friday that the government would set up a task force to monitor the movement of foreigners entering the country’s borders. -The Jakarta Post

Duterte hopes Russia will become Philippines' ally and protector President Rodrigo Duterte said on Friday that he hoped Moscow, a rival of the Philippine's traditional ally the United States, would become his country's ally and protector as he toured one of the two Russian warships on a four-day visit to Manila. -Reuters


APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS


China Chip Policy Poses Risk to U.S. Firms, White House Says China’s push to develop its domestic semiconductor technology threatens to harm U.S. chipmakers and put America’s national security at risk, the Obama administration warned in a report that called for greater scrutiny of Chinese industrial policy. -Bloomberg

Read the full report here this Friday @oxbowgeopolitix via AmericasFridays  

Foxconn, Sharp mulling Zhengzhou for OLED plant Companies rushing to supply panels to Apple for the next iteration of the iPhone -Nikkei

READ >> Paper Tigers, Hidden Dragons: Firms and the Political Economy of China’s Technological Development w/ Doug Fuller, Zhejiang University School of Management -Havard AshCast (podcast)

An importation voice on the realities of tech development,
business, and innovation in China
@oxbowadvisory

Boeing Can Survive a China Trade War Beijing is planning to step up scrutiny of U.S. companies in the event that Donald Trump flips from trash-talking the cost of presidential aircraft to taking punitive measures against Chinese exports to the U.S. -Bloomberg Gadfly

Ride-sharing act revisions see 10 fined on first day - For Uber drivers, who could earn up to NT$50,000 a month, the new system of incentives for people to report them had many avoiding jobs on Friday -Taipei Times

Sri Lanka protest over Chinese investment turns ugly -BBC

 

Indonesia considers curbs on negative research by banks Indonesia’s government is considering curbs on negative research reports by foreign banks, building on its decision to punish JPMorgan Chase & Co. for issuing a bearish call on the country’s equity market. -Jakarta Post

Curbs on the free flow of financial information; one way to ensure a decline (not boost) in growth + investment … @oxbowadvisory


GLOBAL MACRO

Copper jumps in Asia after Caixin data, gold up solidly on geopolitics Gold prices gained solidly on Tuesday and copper jumped as a private manufacturing survey out of China aided sentiment and geopolitical tension was stoked over a tweet by President-elect Donald Trump warning North Korea on testing an intercontinental ballistic missile. -Investing.com

China Reserves Hover Above $3 Trillion on Government Support China’s foreign currency holdings remained above $3 trillion in December even as the yuan capped its steepest annual decline in more than two decades. -Bloomberg

$300bn likely flew out of China in 2016 -Nikkei

Nikkei slips as Toyota reels from Trump threat Japan's Nikkei share average dropped on Friday as automakers dragged after incoming U.S President Donald Trump threatened to slap punitive taxes on Toyota cars imported into the United States from Mexico, while Fast Retailing weighed on the market. -Reuters