Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
EMEA Wednesdays - January 25, 2017

GLOBAL RISK

World Order 2.0 Little stays local anymore. Just about anyone and anything, from tourists, terrorists, and refugees to e-mails, diseases, dollars, and greenhouse gases, can reach almost anywhere. Today’s realities call for an updated operating system—World Order 2.0 – based on “sovereign obligation,” the notion that sovereign states have not just rights but also obligations to others. -Project Syndicate

Hmm … so 1990s @oxbowgeopolitix

European Populism in the Age of Donald Trump The election of Donald J. Trump in the United States has energized some insurgent European parties as they seek to overturn the established political order. -NYT

As Cold War turns to Information War, a new fake news police combats disinformation -The Washington Post

EUROPE RISK

Brexit: Supreme Court says Parliament must give Article 50 go-ahead Parliament must vote on whether the government can start the Brexit process, the Supreme Court has ruled. -BBC

France's Le Pen says Europe must 'wake up'; Brexit domino effect on EU The far-right leaders met under the slogan "Freedom for Europe" with the aim of strengthening ties between their parties, whose nationalist tendencies have hampered close collaboration in the past. -France24

Rome mayor faces abuse of power probe Virginia Raggi and the 5Star Movement face another setback. The mayor of Rome, Virginia Raggi, is under investigation for abuse of power and giving false statements to government authorities, senior Italian law enforcement officials said Tuesday. -Politico.eu

Scotland's Sturgeon raises independence specter after court ruling -Reuters

Can Europe exploit Trump's protectionism? German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel says that Europe can and should step in and fill the gaps left by Donald Trump's trade policies. -DW

THINK TANK WATCH this Friday >> European Growth and the Next Chapter in US-EU Relations January 26, 2017 - 12:00 pm -Atlantic Council

RUSSIA RISK

Another Reset with Russia? It is simply not true that Russia willingly gave up its empire to join the democratic West, only to be rebuffed by it. -Project Syndicate

How Russia sold its oil jewel: without saying who bought it -Reuters

Russian fake news campaign targets Merkel in German election German Chancellor Angela Merkel a prime Kremlin target, EU task force said. -Politico.eu

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Is Russia Dominating Middle East Geopolitics Narratives? -VOA

Russia, Turkey and Iran agree trilateral mechanism to maintain Syrian ceasefire Syrian peace talks in Astana have concluded with Russia, Turkey and Iran striking a deal on a trilateral mechanism to safeguard the ongoing ceasefire. However, Syrian rebels have criticized ongoing government offensives. -DW

Israel approves plans for 2,500 new settlement homes in West Bank -BBC

AFRICA RISK

Trump’s revival of the antiabortion ‘gag rule’ could have a big impact in Africa -The Washington Post

The Gambia: a beacon for African democracy? West Africa's regional bloc ECOWAS was able to exert huge pressure on Gambian ruler Yahya Jammeh and force him to step down. Other African regional blocs don't have ECOWAS's clout. -DW

Quandary in South Sudan: Should It Lose Its Hard-Won Independence? -NYT

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Amazon offers to scrap e-book clauses to settle EU antitrust probe The Commission is also probing Amazon over its arrangement with Luxembourg to minimize its tax bill, part of a crackdown on such deals in the 28-country bloc -Reuters

Airbus warns over Brexit free movement "We are entering a dangerous phase" if Airbus cannot seamlessly move people and products around the European Union -BBC

Deputy PM: 30,000 finance jobs will move to Poland post Brexit Poland will attract financial business in 2017, Mateusz Morawiecki -Politico.eu

How Trade and Sanctions Made This Russian Fisherman a Billionaire -Bloomberg
 
International cinema giant AMC Theatres will acquire the Sweden-based cinema network Nordic Cinema Group for a reported 870 m EUR. Estonia’s cinema chain Forum Cinemas will be part of the deal. -FilmNewEurope

GLOBAL MACRO

Saudi oil output, exports to drop in January: sources, data Saudi Arabia's oil output is likely to drop to around 9.9 million barrels per day in January and exports are down from December as the OPEC heavyweight plays its part in a global supply-cut deal. -Reuters

Why Saudi Arabia May Unravel OPEC's Big Deal -Bloomberg

New Dutch disease — a gas hangover The Netherlands blew through billions in profits from natural gas, and now it’s turning to Russia for supplies. -Politico.eu

Special Report: Areva and Niger's uranium fight France embraced nuclear power to free itself from reliance on foreign oil and overnight this remote corner of Africa became crucial to its national interests. -Reuters

Easyjet says lower pound to cut profits by £105m in 2017 Investors reacted badly to the mixed report, pushing the carrier's shares down 8.8%. -BBC