Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
APAC Mondays - January 23, 2017


GLOBAL RISK

How rekindled Sino-Indian tensions are reshaping Asian geopolitics As New Delhi bridles at Beijing’s refusal to take its security concerns seriously, its erstwhile ally Russia is showing interest in cosying up to Pakistan -SCMP

Economic Prosperity in the Digital Age Representing $19 trillion in potential economic value over the next decade, digitization has the power to enable countries to kick-start GDP growth, job creation, and innovation. -Project Syndicate

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CHINA RISK

The new Davos man >> Xi Jinping portrays China as a rock of stability Here, at a time of global uncertainty and anxiety for capitalists, was the world’s most powerful communist presenting himself as a champion of globalisation and open markets. -The Economist

By playing a longer game, China could turn tables on Trump Beijing's choices include playing hardball, appeasement or something in between -Nikkei

First Batch of Overseas NGOs Register Under China’s New Law Four of the six organizations that have secured registrations under China’s new foreign NGO law are chambers of commerce. -Sixth Tone

QUERY >> whether in registering, foreign business associations, such as USCBC, are rendered moot in China … since their raison d'être is to advocate for business interests, which at times will be distinct from PRC interests? @oxbowadvisory

A Chinese graduate student who can’t get enough U.S. politics ‘decodes’ Trump he translates American news … sharing his work with about 800,000 followers on Weibo. He’s been the go-to guy for thousands who want to make sense of what’s happening on the other side of the Pacific. -The Washington Post

HONG KONG RISK

Hong Kong: Twenty years later -BBC

All eyes on opinion polls as Hong Kong chief executive election heats up Though pollsters say such surveys play important reference role, others warn against relying fully on them -SCMP

In the Trump era, Hong Kong election race carries even more weight for Beijing With uncertainties rising at home and abroad, the four candidates will need to show they have the qualities to lead -SCMP

JAPAN RISK

Kishida says Japan needs to confirm Senkaku commitment by Trump administration Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said Sunday that Japan needs to have the new U.S. administration’s word on the defense of the Senkaku Islands under the Japan-U.S. security treaty. -The Japan Times

“It is important to confirm the U.S. commitment” -F.M. Kishida

Japan's Abe faces tough road to record tenure Prime minister must keep party's support while minding fiscal gap -Nikkei

Trump’s scrapping of TPP complicates Japan’s trade, growth options The TPP is not just an economic deal but a strategic achievement by Japan and the United States to put themselves — instead of China — at the forefront of regional rule-making on trade, and Japan should fight to hold on to those gains -The Japan Times

TAIWAN RISK

Taiwan’s Message to Trump: We’re No ‘Bargaining Chip’ Taiwan’s U.S. representative lays out a vision for the relationship under a new U.S. administration – and it does not include being offered up as a “bargaining chip” in the United States’ relationship with China. -The Diplomat

‘Taiwan-US ties to advance under Trump’ Yu Shyi-kun (游錫堃) said that the Trump administration poses more of an opportunity than a challenge for Taiwan, adding that the nation should take the opportunity to improve relations with the US. Yu said he made it clear that Taiwan wants to sign a free-trade agreement with the US to consolidate bilateral economic and trade relations. –Taipei Times

China says its relationship with Taiwan will be 'more complex and grim' in 2017 Beijing said it would not hesitate to oppose any form of separatist activity in the country. -IBT

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

International Law Is Under Siege in the South China Sea China is the latest to flout international law, but the United States paved the way. -The Diplomat

Are China-Singapore relations about to thaw? Prospect of talks in Year of the Rooster raises hopes of a breakthrough in relations, even if disputes over armoured vehicles in Hong Kong and military exercises in Taiwan remain -The Straits Times

Vietnam police arrest dissident for propaganda against state Police in Vietnam arrested a dissident on Saturday (Jan 21) for posting anti-state material on the internet, as part of an ongoing crackdown on critics of the country's Communist rulers. -The Straits Times

Philippines voices displeasure at China's 'very troubling' militarization Territorial dispute in the South China Sea unresponsive to softer diplomacy -Nikkei

Why Chinese cash will continue to feed Phnom Penh bubble In the last of a two-part series on its housing market, Antonio Graceffo explains why the Cambodian capital will still appeal to Chinese investors -Asia Times

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

China sets up $21 billion Internet investment fund: Xinhua

Paramount gets $1bn Chinese funding US film company Paramount Pictures has secured a $1bn (£810m) cash injection from two Chinese firms. -BBC

Playing politics? Chinese tourism under scrutiny as Lunar New Year nears "China uses its sightseeing tourists as a diplomatic weapon," said Li, owner of Taipei-based Chung Shin Travel Service, who has been representing Taiwan's tour operators to lobby Tsai to improve ties with Beijing. -Reuters

China’s investment reaches US$1.6 billion in Indonesia The Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) recorded investment of US$1.6 billion from China up until the third quarter of last year, making the country the third-biggest investor in Indonesia after Singapore and Japan. -The Jakarta

Japan may widen service jobs for foreigners in special zones Workers could fill labor gaps and lead to more tourism -Nikkei

Chief of Taiwan's Foxconn Terry Gou says rise of protectionism unavoidable -The Straits Times

ALREADY HEDGING >> Foxconn will face increasing political risk on both sides of the Pacific  @oxbowadvisory

Taming the Chaebols But, as Lee’s indictment demonstrates, more than the presidency is at stake in this crisis. At the heart of the scandal is the reciprocal relationship between politicians and the chaebols, South Korea’s giant family-owned conglomerates. -The Project Syndicate

GLOBAL MACRO

China's economy grows 6.7% in 2016 -BBC

China-U.S. trade tensions high on Big Oil's worry list Oil executives and Middle East producers are concerned that trade tensions between the United States and China risk clouding the outlook for global energy demand growth and a recovery in the price of oil. -Reuters

Further sharp yen falls would concern Japan -Reuters

Trump currency confusion gives Tokyo headache US policy on dollar unclear, but could expose Japan to criticism -Nikkei

West Australian uranium mines win approval as prices rise As output slows elsewhere, Australia's export market has big potential -Nikkei