Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> Americas Fridays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Americas Fridays - January 20, 2017

GLOBAL RISK

Governments struggling to retain trust of citizens, global survey finds Survey spanning 40 countries reveals how officials are failing to keep up with changes in way voters gather information and form opinions -The Guardian

In Defense of Globalization I saw things that convinced me that it is past time for someone to come to globalization’s defense. -Project Syndicate

It’s time to relax about Trump Those alarmed by Trump should recognize that those personality characteristics do not define the entire man or his agenda for the next four years — and that, in fact, there are good reasons to welcome the brashness. -The Washington Post

U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

No. 45 >> Trump to be sworn in, marking a transformative shift in the country’s leadership -The Washington Post

A President’s First 100 Days Really Do Matter But don’t hold Trump to FDR’s standard. Even if first-100-day productivity has declined, however, it remains one of a president’s best chances to enact his agenda -Five Thirty Eight

Trump team wanted tanks, missile launchers in parade: report -The Hill

Trump’s transition has done little to calm the jitters The president-elect’s provocative actions have stoked fears the White House won’t change Trump’s ways. -Politico

Mnuchin defends record during treasury secretary hearing President-elect Donald Trump's choice for treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has faced strong criticism during a Senate confirmation hearing. -BBC

WANT TO WATCH >> Nomination of Nikki Haley to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations -US Senate Committee of Foreign Relations

WANT TO WATCH >> Nomination Hearing - Wilbur Ross -US Senate Committee of Foreign Relations

Why Trump Is Keeping Some Obama Appointees Around Without any of his key appointees confirmed by the Senate, the incoming president has turned to existing officials to help smooth the transition. -The Atlantic

U.S. RISK

McCain ‘very concerned’ about Tillerson -The Hill

Time For Washington To Think Like A State From Wyoming to California, and Rhode Island to Texas, all 50 states have long had robust economic development programs … The most important factor in the economic health of their respective geographies is the health of their traded sectors—the companies and industries that do business nationally and globally. -Forbes

AMERICAS RISK

Mexico and Mr Trump: What will happen to trade ties? Mexico is being blamed by President-elect Donald Trump for taking jobs from the US. He's been putting pressure on US companies not to move jobs south … -BBC 

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Investors should wake up to Trump’s geopolitical bets Trump’s policy stance towards Russia over China will hit corporate America -FT

Companies drafting emergency plans for Trump tweets Companies and industry groups are turning to lobbyists with a pressing question: What should we do if President-elect Donald Trump attacks us on Twitter? -The Hill

These Automakers Could be Trump’s Next Targets Watch out Canada and Japan—there may be some tweetstorms in your forecast. -Bloomberg 

General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A.or pay big border tax!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2017

Qualcomm Accused of Anticompetitive Practices by F.T.C. -NYT

Uber to Pay $20 Million to Settle FTC Suit Over Driver Pay -Bloomberg

Facebook urged to be more transparent over 'censorship' A coalition of more than 70 civil rights groups has urged Facebook to be clearer about the content it removes. -BBC

The FAA just issued the largest fine ever against a company for flying drones illegally In October, the FAA proposed a $1.9 million fine, but today announced the fine would only be $200,000. -Recode

SEC Charges Businessman With Misusing EB-5 Investments -SEC

A lot of U.S. real estate financed by these visas – interesting to see how the new administration/congress approaches the program’s proposed reform …

GLOBAL MACRO

Buckle up: Oil is going for a bumpy ride in 2017 when the oil market tightens and supply and demand are closer, small changes in the physical supply or demand for oil create big swings in the oil price. Consequently, in a tight oil market, local geopolitical events have global impact. -The Hill

Bullion Bulls Have History on Their Side as Trump Takes Helm A look at recent presidential transitions supports optimism among traders over the metal’s prospects. Gold has averaged gains of almost 15 percent in years marking the inauguration of a new president since the 1970s, advancing in five of those seven years. -Bloomberg

The Daily Prophet: Why Is China Dumping Treasuries? As if the bond market wasn't facing enough headwinds, with inflation starting to stir and the Federal Reserve forecasting a faster pace of interest-rate increases. Now we get news that China dumped more U.S. Treasuries in November than any time since 2011. -Bloomberg View