Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> APAC Mondays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
APAC Mondays - January 16, 2017

GLOBAL RISK

Charting Our AI Future Digital technologies and automation have been replacing workers in agriculture and manufacturing for decades; now they are coming to the services sector. -Project Syndicate

Half the work people do can be automated: McKinsey -Tech in Asia Read the report here >>Harnessing automation for a future that works

People will still power an AI workforce -The Verge

NEW CONTENT >> Interested in the politics of tech; OxbowDisruptr - coming Q1 2017 || the politics policy + profit of global tech

CHINA RISK

One-China Policy Can’t Be Bargaining Chip, Beijing Warns Trump China’s foreign ministry said its One-China policy isn’t negotiable -Bloomberg

China appoints new Tibet governor: Qi Zhala, 58

WANT TO READ >> How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, not Engaged Argument We estimate that the government fabricates and posts about 448 million social media comments a year. -American Political Science Review

Here come the #TrumpTrolls

China's media is about to go to 'war' Russia style -Business Insider

HONG KONG RISK

Hong Kong's No. 2, No. 3 seek top job Pro-democracy camp could sway election outcome -Nikkei

Four candidates for Hong Kong chief executive race ‘too many’, Elsie Leung says Basic Law Committee vice-chairwoman says she has a deeper working relationship with Carrie Lam than John Tsang -SCMP

Make Chinese history compulsory to end Hong Kong youngsters’ identity crisis, says CPPCC Standing Committee member Annie Wu Businesswoman calls for secondary school students to engage critically with mainland’s past, and for a less narrow curriculum -SCMP

Yes, study the past; but which past?

JAPAN RISK

Japan gropes for cyberattack solution as victims suffer in silence Last November, chilling news made headlines nationwide — the internal communications network of the Defense Ministry and Self-Defense Forces had been hacked in September, possibly by another nation. -The Japan Times

Japan, Australia team up to ensure Trans-Pacific Partnership’s survival -Taipei Times

Japan to stop coddling its rice farmers As growers age, agriculture ministry eyes shift to industrial farming -Nikkei

TAIWAN RISK

Tsai signals shift in approach to allies Tsai said that her administration would propose a new trade policy for the region in an effort to base bilateral diplomatic ties on stronger trade exchanges -Taipei Times

Dangerous uncertainty surrounds Taiwan Strait the world’s most dangerous flash point got much more dangerous last Wednesday when China sent its lone aircraft carrier into the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan scrambled fighter jets in response. -The Japan Times

US lawmakers propose Taiwan travel legislation Several pro-Taiwan members of the US House of Representatives on Friday jointly introduced legislation that encourages visits between Taiwan and the US at all levels. -Taipei Times

SOUTHEAST ASIA RISK

PAP’s inability to read changing geopolitical trends has landed Singapore in a diplomatic mess -The Independent

How to resolve the Terrex issue? Follow Lee Kuan Yew's example Beijing's concerns over Taiwan trump its ties with Singapore. That is why Singapore's leaders need to show they draw a distinction between Taiwan's pro-independence and pro-unification camps. -The Straits Times

Return to sender Thailand’s new king rejects the army’s proposed constitution But for all the wrong reasons -The Economist

Abe, Jokowi unite on South China Sea disputes, plan ‘two plus two’ meeting -The Japan Times

ASEAN chair Duterte to prioritize maritime security, economy Philippine govt predicts South China Sea agreement this year -Nikkei

APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Strict Domestic Regulations, Political Uncertainty To Slow Chinese Overseas Buying Spree -Forbes

A Chinese regulator is ordering app stores to register with the government The rules go into effect on Monday, January 16th, and follow a 2016 law designed to restrict apps that attempt to disrupt national security, social order, and other illegal activities. -The Verge

Information = national sovereignty + national asset @oxbowgeopolitix

QUERY >> increasing scope of potential liability for US tech; not in China - in US courts

Want to Make Some Money in Taiwan? Report Your Uber Driver to the Police More than 1 million people in Taiwan have downloaded the ride-hailing app, but the government is cracking down -Time

Singapore tries to become a fintech hub The city-state wants fintech that bolsters, not disrupts, mainstream banks -The Economist

Indonesia eases ban on mineral exports Foreign, domestic producers given different treatment -Nikkei

Indonesia opening the door … for itself

TELLING >> Medco Energi returns home in $3 bn Indonesian acquisition spree After nearly two decades of pursuing overseas growth, Indonesian oil and gas producer … is returning home as it sees a golden opportunity to diversify as foreign players exit. -Nikkei

Cambodia and Laos welcome S'pore firms Urging Singapore businesses to venture into these markets, he said

"Businessmen who come here have to be prepared to take a long-term view and put in the hard work now before the situation is settled." -The Straits Times

GLOBAL MACRO

Hong Kong Stocks May Get Boost From China's Clampdown on Outflows -Bloomberg

Heed Those Asian Bond Bankers As a result, dollar-bond issuance has been the slowest for the first 11 days of the year since 2011. -Bloomberg Gadfly

Rating Action: Moody's assigns provisional (P)Aa2 rating to Korea's announced global bond -Moody’s

Gold Falls For First Time This Week; Slips Below $1,200 Physical demand and geopolitical risk may be the main supporting planks of the gold market in 2017. Gold is sensitive to geopolitical risks in so far as they raise the demand for hard assets. -Barrons