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Americas Fridays - January 13, 2017

GLOBAL RISK

Wall Street's top political risk analyst on the refugee crisis, Vox Populi, and Trump's Twitter account Tina Fordham, managing director and chief global political analyst at Citi, watches how geopolitical and socioeconomic risks can impact the markets. -Business Insider (interview)

The Emergence of a Post-Fact World One of the more striking developments of 2016 was the emergence of a “post-fact” world, in which virtually all authoritative information sources are challenged by contrary facts of dubious quality and provenance. -Project Syndicate

U.S. RISK

US should retain active international role: poll New survey lays out framework for how Americans view the nation’s role in global affairs. Overwhelmingly, Americans say they want the U.S. to work with other nations — and don’t want the U.S. either to go it alone or withdraw from the world stage -Politico

Get the survey here >> University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation

We Have a Problem’: John Kerry on Making Policy by Twitter -The Atlantic

President Signs Portman-Murphy Counter-Propaganda Bill into Law U.S. Senators Rob Portman (R-OH) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) today announced that their Countering Disinformation and Propaganda Act – legislation designed to help American allies counter foreign government propaganda from Russia, China, and other nations – has been signed into law as part of the FY 2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) Conference Report

Menendez pushes tougher penalties against Russia for election hacking U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) joined nine other senators, including former 2016 Republican presidential candidates Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Marco Rubio of Florida and 2008 GOP nominee John McCain of Arizona, in introducing the Countering Russian Hostilities Act of 2017 -NJ.com

USTR Froman: Confident There Is Necessary Support for TPP -Bloomberg (video)

The tech to-do list for the new Congress -Politico

-Spectrum targets
-Communications Act rewrite
-Surveillance reform
-Patent trolls

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RISK

Trump could make Obama’s pivot to Asia a reality Behind the scenes, however, the Trump transition is preparing its own pivot to Asia. As the team that will implement that policy takes shape, what’s emerging is an approach that harkens back to past Republican administrations — but also seeks to actualize the Obama administration’s ambition of enhancing the U.S. presence in the region. -The Washington Post

Nominee Mr. Rex Wayne Tillerson of Texas, to be Secretary of State -United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (hearing)

China must be denied access to reefs

A Sanctions Skeptic for State? -The Atlantic

Lighthizer >> Trump cements protectionist stance with trade rep pick China hawks set to occupy three crucial US trade posts -Nikkei

Pompeo vows to set aside politics as CIA chief Conservative House lawmaker sounds wary about Russia as he prepares to guide America's largest spy agency. -Politico

AMERICAS RISK

Trump could hit a brick wall on NAFTA Dramatically changing the agreement could send tremors throughout the North American business community. -Politico

Canada must brace for 'hardline' approach from Trump's new trade representative, experts warn -CBC

White House to End Exemption for Cubans Who Arrive Without Visas The Obama administration on Thursday will terminate the so-called wet foot, dry foot policy that allows Cubans who arrive on United States soil without visas to remain in the country and gain legal residency -NYT

U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY
GLOBAL BUSINESS

Trump's Drug-Price Stance Puts Pharma on Notice -Bloomberg

Trump threat to GM: Make the Chevy Cruze in U.S. 'or pay big border tax' General Motors is the latest target of President-elect Donald Trump’s Twitter cannon, with the Manhattan billionaire complaining that the American automaker is manufacturing cars in Mexico and importing them into the U.S. without penalty.

U.S. BORDER TAX ADJUSTMENTS Martin Feldstein Explains Border Tax Adjustment Effects -Bloomberg Read his article here

Policy implication = “much stronger [$] … 20-25%” -Feldstein

If there is one Trump policy proposal for global companies to monitor its this one – forget the tariffs this is the first volley of #Trumprisk @oxbowadvisory

Ford Owes Suppliers Payouts After Mexico Car Plant Aborted -Bloomberg

Industrial policy ≠ profit

FedEx chief urges Trump rethink trade views FedEx Chairman Fred Smith urged President-elect Donald Trump on Friday to reconsider his opposition to the TPP and proceed carefully on his threats to withdraw from NAFTA, which he said would cause an economic disaster. -Politico

CHINA in the cross hairsEnsuring Long - Term U.S. Leadership in Semiconductors -President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology

Amazon Touts Job-Creation Plans, Patching Up Rift With Trump The additional jobs would swell Amazon’s U.S. workforce, which stood at 180,000 last -WSJ

Uber is finally releasing a data trove that officials say will make driving better for everyone The San Francisco-based company shared a vast trove of transportation data Sunday that it said local officials could use to help cut down on commute times and improve traffic flow. -The Washington Post

GLOBAL MACRO

Canada Will Outperform U.S. for Second Year -Bloomberg (video)