Geopolitical Risk Tracker >> EMEA Wednesdays

DRIVING GEOPOLITICAL RISK + GLOBAL MARKETS

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
EMEA Wednesdays - January 11, 2017

GLOBAL RISK

The Next World Order The annus horribilis of 2016 is behind us now. But its low points – the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union, the election of Donald Trump as US president, the ongoing atrocities in Syria – were merely symptoms of a process of dissolution of the liberal rules-based global system that began long before. Unfortunately, those symptoms are now accelerating the system’s decline. -Project Syndicate

The Growing Urban-Rural Divide Around the World How politics pits demographic groups against each other -The Atlantic

2017 EMEA ELECTION WATCH

March 15 - The Netherlands’s General Election
April 23 - Second Round May 7 - France’s Presidential Election
May 19 - Iran’s Presidential Election
October 22 - Germany’s Federal Election

EUROPE RISK

EU spots opportunity in Brexit to fix funding wars The UK’s departure could be used to change the tone of the budgetary debate. -Politico.eu

Legal challenge against UK’s sweeping surveillance laws quickly crowdfunded Human rights campaign Liberty is launching a legal challenge against the UK’s recently passed surveillance legislation, and have reached an initial crowdfunding goal to pay for the fight this morning. -The Verge

Why the Baltics Want to Move to Another Part of Europe Small countries have a problem: Few people who are not from them can place them on the map. -Bloomberg View

Forbes lists Estonia as the 13th best country for business -Estonia World

RUSSIA RISK

5 Russian words that explain Vladimir Putin To understand the man, you need some Russian (and history) lessons. -Politico.eu

1. компромат (Kompromat)
2. Восстановление (Restoration)
3. Яркий (Flamboyant)
4. Наш (Our)
5. Монголо-татарское иго (The Mongol yoke)

Russia to scale back military presence in Syria -France24

MIDDLE EAST RISK

Turkey opposition fears 'dictatorship' At President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's behest, the ruling AKP party wants to introduce a presidential system in Turkey. The country's political opposition is up in arms. -DW

The death of a former president tilts the balance of power in Iran -The Economist

American Destroyer Fires Warning Shots at Iranian Boats In a vivid illustration of the tensions between the United States and Iran, an American Navy warship fired warning shots at Iranian boats that were racing toward it near the Strait of Hormuz, Defense Department officials said on Monday. -NYT

AFRICA RISK

Africa’s Unique Vulnerability to Violent Extremism While these attacks did garner the world’s attention, most people do not realize that, in the past five years alone, 33,000 people have died in terrorism-related violence in Africa. Violent extremism and groups espousing it are threatening to reverse Africa’s development gains not only in the near term, but also for decades to come. -Project Syndicate

Chinese FDI helps to stabilize Africa’: Brookings fellow David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Brookings Institution, tells Doug Tsuruoka that China is a positive force in the continent. -Asia Times -Asia Times

Dollar is an astute observer on all things China; but this interview might have carried more weight if somebody thought of interviewing a local or two …  

Perhaps its covered in the report >> you can read all 125 pages here

EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS

Europe kills the cookie monster Commission’s proposed e-Privacy Regulation would restrict how companies listen in on calls and message -Politico.eu

Snapchat will make the UK its new international headquarters The move bucks an established trend, with most US tech firms settling in nations with lower tax rates -The Verge

Russia is erasing Linkedin from app stores In November, the service was ruled to be in violation of a 2014 law requiring all data collected on Russian citizens to be stored within Russian borders. -The Verge

Information = national sovereignty

Islamic State attack victims' families sue Twitter -BBC

Another troubling issue for tech = intermediary liability

Le Pen follows Trump’s lead with vow to bring car industry back to France Far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said on Tuesday she would seek to repatriate production of French motor vehicles and other industrial goods -France24

Bon chance … #deuxchevaux

GLOBAL MACRO

Pound Looks Past Economic Resilience as Brexit Only Game in Town The pound fell to the weakest in more than two months as a larger-than-forecast increase in industrial output failed to soothe investors worried about Brexit. -Bloomberg

Why the Lira’s in Trouble: 2017’s Worst Performer in Charts Turkey’s political quagmire has been exacerbated by central bank inaction and higher-than-expected inflation to make the lira the worst-performing currency of 2017. -Bloomberg